Dem
54
GOP
46
Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) will soon be out of a job, but for the moment he is still a representative. Congress has to come back by Dec. 11 to pass a bill to fund the government. Massie has said that as soon as it is back, he will file a privileged motion to impeach Sec. of Defense Pete Hegseth. Assuming the parliamentarian approves his request—and if the parliamentarian refuses, he will probably be fired by Speaker Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) on Jan. 3 if the Democrats take the House—the House must vote on the motion within 2 days. All Democrats will support it and there are probably enough Republicans who are unhappy with Hegseth—for losing a war that has cost $50 billion so far with no end in sight and that will enrich Iran from levying tolls in the future—to get 4 more votes.
What the Senate will do with the impeachment is anyone's guess. If Trump wants to use Hegseth as the fall guy for losing the war, he might instruct Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) to proceed with the trial. Of course, Hegseth could resign to avoid being convicted.
Hegseth has a house in Tennessee and dreamed up the cockamamie plan of being appointed to the Senate seat of soon-to-be elected-Gov. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN). Blackburn seems cool to the idea. Her term is up in 2028, so Hegseth would have to run for a full term then. If North Carolina is lost and South Carolina and Mississippi are even in play, we can imagine that she would want a much stronger candidate in 2028, lest that seat also be in play. Tennessee has eight Republican representatives now, maybe nine in January, so surely she can find one of them who would be a stronger 2028 candidate than Hegseth. Also, Hegseth is widely despised in the Senate, so he would be a terrible senator and have no influence at all in the Senate. We doubt she will play along. There is nothing in it for her or for Tennessee.
Massie's motion has eight articles of impeachment. It argues that Hegseth violated the 1973 War Powers Resolution in Iran, and other U.S. laws in Venezuela, Yemen, and elsewhere. There is also one about trying to suppress the speech of a U.S. senator.
If the trial is in December, with the current Senate, there could be a quick vote and acquittal. If the trial is in January, when Democrats may control the Senate, it could be a real circus. We can't see Hegseth sticking around for that. If Trump doesn't fire him by Jan. 3, he will probably resign rather than face a trial in the Senate. What happens after that remains to be seen. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) could file a civil suit against Hegseth for trying to suppress his First Amendment rights and parents of soldiers killed in Iran could too, claiming Hegseth should have refused the illegal orders from Trump to bomb Iran. (V)