Dem
54
GOP
46
No, he doesn't have COVID but his extreme unpopularity is starting to rub off on other Republicans who embrace him. This is not only a problem tomorrow, but also for the next two years. If Republicans who are up in 2028 (which is 19 Republican senators and probably at least 200 Republicans in the House) get the idea that cozying up to him will get them defeated, most are smart enough to figure out that carrying out his every whim is not a good idea.
The New York Times released the final Siena University poll early this morning. It is predicting a very big blue wave. See below for the data. But almost as interesting as the top-line numbers is the popularity of the candidates in key Senate races. Here are the net favorability numbers in seven key races, sorted by the difference between the Democrat's favorability and the Republican's favorability.
| State | Democrat | Dem Fav. | Republican | GOP Fav. | Difference |
| Texas | James Talarico | +10 | Ken Paxton | -20 | D+30 |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed | +12 | Mike Rogers | -12 | D+24 |
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton | +9 | Roger Marshall | -10 | D+19 |
| Iowa | Josh Turek | +15 | Ashley Hinson | EVEN | D+15 |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown | +2 | Jon Husted | -12 | D+14 |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola | +5 | Dan Sullivan | -7 | D+12 |
| Maine | Troy Jackson | -3 | Susan Collins | -1 | R+2 |
Why are the Republicans so unpopular? In the case of Ken Paxton, it is because he is a terrible human being. But that is not true of Mike Rogers, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK), or Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH). We have to think it is because they have embraced Trump and it is rubbing off on them. If they lose badly tomorrow, other Republicans, especially those up in 2028, are surely going to take notice. That is going to have consequences in Congress next year. If the Democrats write some bill that is popular but which Trump hates (for example, one eliminating his tariffs in order to get prices down), more Republicans may be willing to buck him, knowing that being associated with him is actually not good for them personally. This could certainly affect how much stuff gets done next year. (V)