Dem
54
GOP
46
According to early-voting export Prof. Michael McDonald, more than 54 million Americans have already voted this year. The pace is similar to the 2018 midterms, when the Democrats flipped 41 House seats. McDonald said that if the pace keeps up, it could exceed the 2018 midterms, which had the highest midterm turnout rate since 1914. Early voting is up 30% over 2022.
McDonald said that the turnout is very uneven, with Democrats and independents fully engaged and Republicans much less so. So far, 43% of early voters are Democrats vs. 32% who are Republicans. He also said that young voters and minorities are turning out in large numbers. In fact, he sees very high engagement among Blacks, Latinos, and Asian Americans, but less among whites. He also noted that early voting banks votes that can't change, even if there is some major news today or tomorrow. Nate Silver estimates that at least 40% of Michiganders and Michigeese have already voted, so their votes can't be affected by someone going rogue (see below).
In-person early voting is up more than voting by absentee ballot. This is consistent with more Democrats voting early, with many of them afraid the USPS will intercept and destroy their ballots to please Donald Trump. Voting in person eliminates that threat, even though Trump's threat was to have the USPS seize ballots going to voters, not from voters.
Early voting also varies a lot by state. In Texas, which has hot races for senator and governor, more than 6.3 million had voted as of last Wednesday. That is 50% more than in 2020. Early voting is also up more than 30% compared to 2022 in Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina, all of which have Senate races this year. Early voting will taper off now as some states do not allow it up to Election Day. (V)