Nov.02

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Which is the Most Important Single Race Tomorrow?

There are a lot of important races tomorrow. We have covered many of them in detail. But which one is #1? Seventeen of the top reporters and editors at Politico were asked to choose one race as the single most important race tomorrow. Here are their responses:

• D. Burns: If Rev. Adam Hamilton (D) wins in Kansas, the Democrats have a whole new playbook in red states.
• C. Mahtesian: If Don Davis in NC-01 survives the new gerrymander, it will be a harbinger for a blue tsunami.
• W. McCarthy: If the tax on billionaires passes in California, the people have had enough of them.
• J. Harris: If Sherrod Brown gets his old job back, Ohio will be in play in 2028.
• C. Mui: CA-11 (Nancy Pelosi's seat) is a battle over the future of AI and data centers.
• M. McCarthy: Will long-time Republicans in a red district (OH-07) tolerate a wife-and-child-beating Republican?
• A. Burns: The low-key Xavier Becerra is about to take over the 4th biggest economy in the world.
• D. Kahn: Justin Pearson (D) is running on only one issue in TN-09—data centers. A win has huge implications.
• J. Piper: Susan Collins is "concerned" about Trump but that's all. Maybe the voters are more than concerned.
• N. Reisman: If Kathy Hochul loses for governor of NY, can any moderate win in 2028?
• S. Benson: If James Talarico can turn Texas blue, boy oh boy do Republicans have a Texas-size problem.
• K. Leonard: Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar told Trump to fu** off direct to camera. What will her Latino voters say?
• D. Desrochers: Free trade is on the ballot in NH, with Chris Pappas for and John Sununu against it.
• J. Martin: If Democrats win all the marbles in Iowa (Senate, Gov., 4x House), that is a huge rejection of the GOP.
• A Wren: Progressives think that if Abdul El-Sayed can win in Michigan, progressives can win anywhere.
• S. Issenberg: Jared Huffman (D) will win in his new district, but will the likely chairman of the Natural Resources Committee abandon saving the planet now that he represents cattle ranchers, not Bay Area hippies?
• D. Goldberg: Rick Jackson (R) called Brad Raffensperger a "Judas." If he is governor of Georgia will he take the call if Trump calls on Election Day 2028?

These are the experts speaking. Now what about us? Here we go.

• (L): If Sherrod Brown wins big, he will have coattails downballot and this will presage a blue wave nationally.
• (V): If Gina Hinojosa (D) wins in Texas, that is a 10 on the political Richter scale because she beat a serious pol.
• (Z): The Texas U.S. Senate race. If the Democrats get a foothold there, it could be the first step in remaking the state and the region.