Dem
54
GOP
46
If the Republicans take a thrashing today, as expected, then the blame will be placed squarely at the feet of one Donald John Trump. And the last few days have provided reminders aplenty as to exactly why that is the case.
The number one problem, of course, is that Trump has made policy choices that are both extremely unpopular and
extremely unnecessary. At the top of that list is the Iran War, which the administration still hasn't
offered a compelling explanation for. Yes, we know that the purpose was to distract from the Epstein files
stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, but nobody can believe that has been achieved, or will be achieved,
through this particular course of action.
And just in case anyone has forgotten about the war, yesterday the U.S. launched a new offensive against the Iranians, with Qeshm Island as the target. So, people are going to wake up this morning to a headline that effectively works out to "Iran War still ongoing, not likely to end soon." With any other administration, we would assume they would not do anything so politically foolish as to renew a war the day before an election, unless they had a heckuva good reason, like "Our intelligence tells us the Iranians were preparing an Election Day-offensive, and we had to forestall it." With this administration, we just don't know. Especially because Trump has no issue with leaking intelligence for political reasons, and would generally be expected to say "the Iranians were going to attack us," if that were true. Heck, he would generally be expected to say it, even if it weren't true. Instead, well, he seemed to be unaware of the attack when he appeared on Fox for an interview yesterday. Which is also a convenient reminder of a different liability he has.
Another problem with Trump is his insistence on using the mode of campaigning that he used with great success in 2016. He lives by the rally, and he will die by the rally. There is a pretty good argument to be made that he shouldn't be out on the hustings at all, since his mid-30s approval makes him pretty toxic. But if he IS going to be out there, well, his rallies are played out, in much the same way that ratings for The Apprentice declined every single year he hosted it. On Sunday Trump performed the final rally of the midterm season, appearing in Salina, KS, to try to fire up a crowd of about 2,000 people. That is a pretty solid turnout... for a high school football game. For a presidential appearance, maybe not so much.
Of course, assuming things go south for the GOP, Trump will also get the blame for pushing aside electable candidates in favor of unelectable candidates in a number of races. North Carolina is almost certainly lost, though we suppose Trump might be forgiven for that, since Roy Cooper is a very strong candidate and the Tar Heel State has a long history of swapping out senators. On the other hand, Texas will be a near-unforgivable loss if James Talarico (D) defeats Ken Paxton (R) for the open (thanks to Trump) U.S. Senate seat there. The news out of Texas yesterday was something of a reverse-Haley Stevens. Hillary Shepheard is the leader of the Young Republicans of Tarrant County, and is regarded as a rising star in Republican circles. Well, she WAS the leader, and she WAS regarded. Yesterday, she announced that "Our party needs a slap in the face" and that "Ken Paxton has to lose" has to lose for the sake of the Republicans' future.
And then, there is the news from yesterday that might be the Trumpiest story of them all. One of the things that has to be particularly aggravating to Republican muckety-mucks is Trump's propensity for focusing on stupid or trivial things, whether it's [SQUABBLE WITH PERSON X] or [UNNECCESSARY AND PROBABLY CORRUPT VANITY PROJECT Y]. Both things make Trump (and, by extension, his party) look small and self-involved, and at the same time completely uninterested in the problems being faced by average Americans.
Anyhow, after finishing a run of 32 rallies in 30 days, Trump announced yesterday that he would share his final message of the midterms, and invited the press to be in attendance. The site of the speech was... the Lincoln Reflecting Pool. And in his roughly 60 minutes of speaking time, the President spent less than 10 minutes talking about the midterms (and that was mostly how great a job of campaigning he has done). The other 50 minutes were devoted to carping about the evil people who vandalized the pool, and showing numerous renderings of how awesome the pool is going to be after the next round of renovations, and talking about other construction projects like the Arc de Trump. Now THAT is a closing message. Didn't we tell you this was the Trumpiest story of them all?
Still another issue (we told you there was a lot), is that Trump doesn't pass legislation. He gets roughly one tax cut through each term, and that's about it. On a podcast recorded Sunday but aired yesterday, Trump advised that if the Democrats win control of Congress, he will "become Mr. Veto." In other words, it does not matter what the legislation is, or how hard the Democrats work to accommodate Republican concerns, it's DoA if and when it hits Trump's desk. He could scarcely do more to help the Democrats out on this front. Now, when they pass [BILL X] and he kills it, they can say, "He has no interest in governing, and no interest in making people's lives better, because of personal petulance. He said so before there were even any election results, much less some actual legislation. The only way to get [BILL X] passed is to elect a Democratic trifecta."
There was one other big Trump-related story yesterday, and it broke fairly late in the day. Another politically unhelpful thing that Trump and his minions have done is endeavor to interfere in the elections. It is true that cheating can work; you could ask Lyndon B. Johnson and Richard Nixon if they weren't, you know, dead. However, Trump's attempts at cheating have been too ham-fisted, with the result being that the administration has been defeated, over and over, by both state-level officials and by judges. And the problems with trying and failing so much are numerous. It makes the administration look weak. It makes the administration look anti-democratic. And it rallies the opposition to make a point of voting, and voting in a way that the White House is not able to interfere with. Nearly 60 million ballots have already been cast, and it's likely that number will go up when the final early-vote totals are announced. That is considerably more than the 46 million early votes cast in 2022, and is more than half of the total of 112 million votes cast in that election.
The specific news on this front from yesterday is that the Supreme Court rejected Trump's request to put aside 20,000 votes in California, until the eligibility of the voters in question can be resolved. The brief order was unsigned, and without dissent. That suggests that the judges voted 9-0 against Trump. Certainly a majority did, which means at least two of the conservatives weren't buying what Trump is selling.
And the good news (or the bad news, if you're Trump) doesn't end there. Normally, the Court would request briefs from both sides of a case. It did not bother to make such a request of California AG Rob Bonta. That means that the Trump administration's argument was so weak, it collapsed entirely of its own accord. It's also a signal that the Supremes are not terribly interested in mucking around in this election, and do not find compelling the causes of action that Trump and his acolytes have been pursuing. He's failed so often in the lower courts that the Supremes—they of the "Trump is basically a king" ruling—was really his last, best hope. Now it appears that hope is dashed.
And that is how the last 48 hours of Trumpism have been a microcosm of the last 9 months of Trumpism. Let the finger-pointing begin. Oh, wait. It already has begun. (Z)