Dem
54
GOP
46
Let's put all the predictions in one place, in a nice, tidy package. Tomorrow, or later this week, or next week, you can check back and see which approach worked out the best.
First, here is the information we'll put into the tables:
And now, here are the projections for the 18 Senate seats that are plausibly in play. Different outlets use different ways of expressing their prediction, of course:
| State | E-V.com | EVR | NS | APA | Cook | Sabato | IE | Poly | Kalshi | PredictIt |
| Alaska (R) | Peltola +3% | Peltola (87.2%) | Peltola +2.4% | Peltola +2.1% | Toss-Up | Leans D | Toss-Up | Peltola (71%) | Peltola (68%) | Peltola (70%) |
| Florida (R) | Moody +5% | (Moody 95%) | Moody +6.1% | Moody +6% | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | (Moody 85%) | (Moody 84%) | (Moody 85%) |
| Georgia (D) | Ossoff +10% | Ossoff (99.9%) | Ossoff +9.4% | Ossoff +8.5% | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Ossoff (97%) | Ossoff (97%) | Ossoff (97%) |
| Iowa (R) | Turek +2% | Turek (65.2%) | Turek +1% | Tied | Toss-Up | Leans R | Toss-Up | Turek (53%) | Turek (51%) | Tied |
| Kansas (R) | Hamilton +5% | Hamilton (78.5%) | Hamilton +4% | Hamilton +3.7% | Toss-Up | Leans D | Toss-Up | Hamilton (64%) | Hamilton (64%) | Hamilton (71%) |
| Louisiana (R) | Letlow +4% | Letlow (93.2%) | Letlow +4% | N/A | Solid R | Leans R | Likely R | Letlow (87%) | Letlow (88%) | Letlow (88%) |
| Maine (R) | Jackson +6% | Jackson (70.1%) | Jackson +3.9% | Jackson +4.6% | Toss-Up | Leans D | Toss-Up | Jackson (73%) | Jackson (72%) | Jackson (74%) |
| Michigan (D) | El-Sayed +6% | El-Sayed (88.4%) | El-Sayed +4.9% | El-Sayed +5.4% | Lean D | Leans D | Tilt D | El-Sayed (81%) | El-Sayed (81%) | El-Sayed (79%) |
| Minnesota (D) | Flanagan +4% | Flanagan (97.7%) | Flanagan +6% | Flanagan +6.2% | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Flanagan (92%) | Flanagan (91%) | Flanagan (90%) |
| Mississippi (R) | Hyde-Smith +3% | Hyde-Smith (78.6%) | Hyde-Smith +6.5% | N/A | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Hyde-Smith (87%) | Hyde-Smith (86%) | Hyde-Smith (86%) |
| Montana (R) | Alme +1% | Alme (60.2%) | Alme +8.7% | Alme +10.5% | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Alme (91%) | Alme (90%) | Alme (88%) |
| Nebraska (R) | Ricketts +3% | Ricketts (50.5%) | Ricketts +1.2% | Ricketts +1.5% | Lean R | Leans R | Tilt R | Ricketts (68%) | Ricketts (67%) | Ricketts (65%) |
| New Hampshire (D) | Pappas +10% | Pappas (96.6%) | Pappas +8.3% | Pappas +7% | Lean D | Likely D | Tilt D | Pappas (95%) | Pappas (93%) | Pappas (96%) |
| North Carolina (R) | Cooper +11% | Cooper (98.9%) | Cooper +10% | Cooper +10.7% | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | Cooper (98%) | Cooper (98%) | Cooper (97%) |
| Ohio (R) | Brown +3% | Brown (95.7%) | Brown +3% | Brown +2.6% | Toss-Up | Leans D | Tilt D | Brown (72%) | Brown (72%) | Brown (75%) |
| South Carolina (R) | Graham +2% | Graham (63%) | Graham +1.1% | Graham +1.4% | Lean R | Leans R | Tilt R | Graham (68%) | Graham (68%) | Graham (67%) |
| South Dakota (R) | Rounds +3% | Rounds (89.2%) | Rounds +10.6% | Rounds +10.4% | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Rounds (95%) | Rounds (95%) | Rounds (89%) |
| Texas (R) | Talarico +5% | Talarico (92.2%) | Talarico +3.3% | Talarico +3.3% | Toss-Up | Leans D | Tilt D | Talarico (74%) | Talarico (74%) | Talarico (77%) |
| Totals | 11 D, 0 TU, 7 R | 11 D, 0 TU, 7 R | 11 D, 0 TU, 7 R | 10 D, 3 TU, 5 R | 5 D, 6 TU, 7 R | 10 D, 0 TU, 8 R | 7 D, 4 TU, 7 R | 11 D, 0 TU, 7 R | 11 D, 0 TU, 7 R | 10 D, 1 TU, 7 R |
It's kind of remarkable how little disagreement there is. There are a handful of seats where the question is "toss-up" or "Democratic." But the only seat that has predictions on both sides is Iowa, and even then, it's only one prognosticator who has Josh Turek losing.
The Republicans control 14 of the 18 Senate seats in the chart. That means that if, for example, our predictions are all correct, then 7 seats will flip, giving a Senate with 51 Democrats, 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats, 46 Republicans and 1 John Fetterman. Put another way, the only prognosticators who are not predicting a Democratic Senate right out of the gate are Cook and Inside Elections.
Now, the 16 governorships that are plausibly in play:
| State | E-V.com | EVR | NS | APA | Cook | Sabato | IE | Poly | Kalshi | PredictIt |
| Alaska (R) | N/A | Kreiss-Tomkins (84.2%) | Kreiss-Tomkins +19.1% | N/A | Lean D | Likely D | Tilt D | Kreiss-Tomkins (89%) | Kreiss-Tomkins (90%) | Kreiss-Tomkins (89%) |
| Arizona (D) | N/A | Hobbs (99.1%) | Hobbs +9% | Hobbs +9.3% | Likely D | Likely D | Tilt D | Hobbs (93%) | Hobbs (82%) | Hobbs (91%) |
| Florida (R) | N/A | Donalds (78.8%) | Donalds +4.1% | Donalds +4.3% | Lean R | Leans R | Lean R | Donalds (63%) | Donalds (63%) | Donalds (68%) |
| Georgia (R) | N/A | Lance-Bottoms (75.8%) | Lance-Bottoms +0.7% | Jackson +0.6% | Toss-Up | Leans D | Tilt D | Lance-Bottoms (71%) | Lance-Bottoms (72%) | Lance-Bottoms (71%) |
| Iowa (R) | N/A | Sand (74.8%) | Sand +7.8% | Sand +7.1% | Lean D | Leans D | Lean D | Sand (88%) | Sand (88%) | Sand (89%) |
| Kansas (D) | N/A | Masterson (68.6%) | Tied | Masterson +1.2% | Toss-Up | Leans R | Tilt R | Masterson (65%) | Masterson (65%) | Masterson (66%) |
| Maine (D) | N/A | Pingree (94.8%) | Pingree +10.3% | Pingree +10.3% | Solid D | Likely D | Solid D | Pingree (97%) | Pingree (97%) | N/A |
| Michigan (D) | N/A | Benson (97.7%) | Benson +8.6% | Benson +9.2% | Lean D | Likely D | Lean D | Benson (85%) | Benson (95%) | Benson (95%) |
| Nebraska (R) | N/A | Pillen (92.8%) | Pillen +5.5% | Pillen +5.9% | Lean R | Likely R | Likely R | Pillen (91%) | Pillen (89%) | Pillen (85%) |
| Nevada (R) | N/A | Ford (75.5%) | Ford +0.2% | Lombardo +0.2% | Toss-Up | Leans D | Toss-Up | Ford (76%) | Ford (75%) | Ford (81%) |
| New Hampshire (R) | N/A | Ayotte (64%) | Ayotte +6.6% | Ayotte +9.3% | Likely R | Leans R | Solid R | Ayotte (86%) | Ayotte (85%) | Ayotte (80%) |
| Ohio (R) | N/A | Acton (98.6%) | Acton +4.4% | Acton +4.1% | Lean D | Leans D | Tilt D | Acton (84%) | Acton (83%) | Acton (81%) |
| Oregon (D) | N/A | Kotek (96.2%) | Kotek +1.6% | Kotek +2.0% | Lean D | Leans D | Tilt D | Kotek (82%) | Kotek (84%) | Kotek (99%) |
| Texas (R) | N/A | Abbott (70.4%) | Abbott +1.6% | Abbott +1.9% | Lean R | Leans R | Tilt R | Abbott (62%) | Abbott (62%) | Abbott (64%) |
| Vermont (R) | N/A | Scott (67%) | Janoo +1.1% | N/A | Likely R | Leans R | Likely R | Scott (68%) | Scott (67%) | Scott (52%) |
| Wisconsin (D) | N/A | Crowley (95.2%) | Crowley +5.5% | Crowley +4.6% | Lean D | Leans D | Tilt D | Crowley (87%) | Crowley (85%) | Crowley (84%) |
| Totals | 0 D, 16 TU, 0 R | 10 D, 0 TU, 6 R | 11 D, 1 TU, 4 R | 8 D, 1 TU, 7 R | 8 D, 3 TU, 5 R | 10 D, 0 TU, 6 R | 9 D, 1 TU, 6 R | 10 D, 0 TU, 6 R | 10 D, 0 TU, 6 R | 9 D, 1 TU, 6 R |
There's a little more disagreement here than with the Senate races, but not a lot. In Georgia, Nevada and Vermont, there is one outlet going against the majority position. But beyond that, it's just a few outlets who see a toss-up race where others see a winner.
The Republicans control 10 of the 16 governorships in the chart. So if, for example, the readers are correct, then the Democrats will net four governors' mansions. If that were to come to pass, the blue team would control 28 governorships overall, as compared to 22 for the red team.
And finally, we'll pass along the readers' prediction for the House. The average guess was 234.1 seats for the Democrats. The median guess was 233 seats, and the mode was 230.
And now we wait and see how everyone did. (Z)