Dem
54
GOP
46
We've written a few pieces about House races that are worth watching tonight. However, let's try to put a finer point on it.
Early Indicator Districts: These are districts in the East that will give some sense of whether there is a blue wave, and how big that wave is.
FL-07 (R+5): This is an open seat being vacated by Cory Mills (R) after his sexual misconduct scandals. The Democrats will need to win some seats like this to take the House.
FL-13 (R+6): This is Anna Paulina Luna's (R) seat. She's an outspoken Trumper, and her fate will give some sense of exactly how powerful the anti-Trump sentiment is.
ME-02 (R+4): Former governor Paul LePage (R) is up against a progressive, Matthew Dunlap (D). If Dunlap wins, or keeps it close, it could presage progressive success elsewhere, like in the Michigan U.S. Senate race.
NC-01 (R+5): Don Davis (D) is trying to hold on in a seat that was re-gerrymandered to make it much harder for him to do so. If he survives, that could be an indication that the GOP gerrymanders won't be successful.
PA-07 (R+1): This seat is being defended by Ryan Mackenzie (R). Normally, incumbency is worth about 3 points. So, if McKenzie loses, it's going to be an indicator of anti-incumbent sentiment. The bigger he loses, the stronger the indication.
PA-10 (R+3): Ibid., except that it's Scott Perry (R) defending.
VA-01 (R+3): This is the seat of Rob Wittman (R). The Democrats really, really want this one.
VA-02 (EVEN): Elaine Luria (D) used to hold this seat, and then got knocked off by Jen Kiggans (R). Today, it's a rematch. If the Democrats can't win this one, it's a bad sign for them.
Latino Districts: These districts are all majority-Latino, and are where we will learn if the Latino backlash against Trump is for real.
FL-27 (R+6): This is the district of María Elvira Salazar (R), who knows her (mostly Cuban) voters are hopping mad about Trump's immigration policy. She dared criticize the throne, and may pay the price of that.
TX-15 (R+7): Monica De La Cruz (R) is aiming for a third term. If she loses, particularly by several points, then it's big trouble for the GOP, in Texas and elsewhere. The district is 81% Latino, and most of that is Mexican Americans.
TX-23 (R+7): This is the district that Tony Gonzales (R) left open when he resigned after his paramour took her own life.
TX-28 (R+2): Henry Cuellar (D), one of the most conservative members of his caucus, is trying to win an 11th term in a district that is redder than it was last time. If he loses, that's bad news for the blue team.
TX-34 (R+3): This is the seat of Vicente Gonzalez (D) who, like Cuellar, is a conservative Democrat trying to hold on to a slightly redder district. This district is more than 90% Latino.
TX-35 (D+19): Greg Casar (D) isn't going to lose, obviously. But if he really runs up the score, it tells us that Latinos are so mad, they are willing to get to the polls just to make a point.
Note that AZ-06 (EVEN), CA-22 (D+1) and NM-02 (EVEN) are also swingy and majority-Latino, but those results will be announced later than in the districts above.
Black Districts: These are the districts that will give a sense of what Black voters are thinking.
GA-06 (D+25): Lucy McBath (D) is obviously going to win another term. But if she improves on the 74% of the vote she got last time, it strongly suggests that Black voters are getting to the polls to vote for Keisha Lance Bottoms and/or Jon Ossoff.
LA-02 (D+17): Troy Carter, who is running for a fourth term, is Black and is going to win this 50.4% Black district easily. However, if Jamie Davis—also Black—is going to pull off an upset in the state's Senate race, he needs turnout here to be way up over 2024 (about 305,000 votes, total).
MD-04 (D+39): There isn't too much of interest going on in Maryland this year, and incumbent Glenn Ivey (D) will win easily. However, this will likely be the first majority-Black district to report results. Ivey got 88% of the vote on the strength of just under 240,000 voters casting ballots for him.
MS-02 (D+11): This is Bennie Thompson's (D) district, and has a greater percentage of Black voters (63%) than any other. Thompson is in no danger, but if he can run up the score, that will get Democrats very excited. Also a huge win here might hint that Scott Colom (D) has a shot at unseating Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS).
TN-09 (R+9): This is the district Steve Cohen (D) is vacating, and has nowhere near the Black population it did before being gerrymandered. If Black voters nonetheless show up in force to vote for Justin Pearson (D), who is Black and is running a one-issue campaign (data centers), then that is great news for the blue team.
Senate Districts: These are the districts that pretty closely approximate the partisan lean of the key Senate races taking place in the state. If the Democrats are doing much better than the PVI of the district, it's probably a pretty good sign for the Senate race. If they are doing much worse, well...
South Carolina R+8 Texas R+6FL-05 (R+5): Aaron Bean (R) is running for reelection; the district matches exactly the R+5 partisan lean of the state.
IA-02 (R+4): This seat is open because Ashley Hinson (R) is running for the Senate. Since incumbency is not a factor, then the success (or lack thereof) of Democrat Lindsay James will be mostly a reflection of the overall political climate. Iowa, as a whole, is R+6, so James is facing a hill similar in size to the one Josh Turek is trying to climb.
KS-02 (R+10): Derek Schmidt (R) is up for reelection; the district has a lot of evangelicals, farmers and evangelical farmers, and Adam Hamilton will need solid support from those demographics if he is to win in this R+8 state.
MI-07 (EVEN): Tom Barrett (R) wants a second term. Michigan is one of only two states in the country that is EVEN (Wisconsin is the other), and MI-07 is therefore an exact match.
OH-09 (R+5): Marcy Kaptur (D) has pulled off miracles before, and she's searching for another semi-miracle today. Her district has the same lean as Ohio as a whole.
SC-07 (R+7): Joe Wilson (R) is running for his 12th term. If he doesn't get it, or if it's a nail-biter, that's trouble for Darline Graham (R) in this R+8 state.
TX-24 (R+7): Beth Van Duyne (R) is up for reelection in the district that most closely approximates Texas' R+6 statewide partisan lean. The district is two-thirds white, so if she does lose, Ken Paxton (R) is in deep trouble.
Red State Republicans: These are districts in red states represented by a Republican representative.
IA-01 (R+4): Mariannette Miller-Meeks came closer to losing than any other 2024 winner. The Democrats will be bitterly disappointed if they don't flip her seat.
IA-03 (R+2): Zach Nunn (R) is trying to keep his job. If the blue team comes up short both here and in IA-01, it's a bad omen for the Iowa Senate race, and possibly even for the Midwest as a whole. Lots of farmers in IA-01 and IA-03.
KY-06 (R+7): Gov. Andy Beshear (D) is all-in on trying to get his former aide, Zach Dembo, elected. If the Governor succeeds, it will be a big feather in his cap.
OH-07 (R+5): Max Miller (R) is accused of violence against his ex-wife; if the Democrats can't knock him off, among all people, then R+4 may be their upper limit in terms of winnable districts.
WI-03 (R+3): Derrick Van Orden (R) is an obnoxious person, a show horse who ran some really sleazy AI-generated ads this campaign (which we wrote about). If the blue team can't defeat awful people like Van Orden and Miller, that's a big, red, flashing warning sign.
This should give us plenty to write about as we liveblog tonight. (Z)