Dem
54
Ties
2
GOP
44
If you are a high-profile Trump insider, and in particular if you are a high-profile Trump insider who might have broken the law, now is a pretty good time to think about getting out. Congress is about to start investigating six ways to Sunday, and Donald Trump is going to be in a perpetual state of rage from here on out. Neither of these things are pleasant prospects for folks in the administration.
The (apparently) sinking ship has actually already had its first desertion. Harmeet Dhillon, the head of the Department of Justice's Civil Rights Division, resigned yesterday. On her watch, the venerated division had become a primary weapon for MAGA ideology and saw the exodus of hundreds of career prosecutors as their mission was perverted to satisfy Trump grievances. According to Dhillon, she's proud of her work "protecting women and girls' sports"—not from discrimination or unequal pay, but from trans women who are clearly trying to take trophies from non-trans women. It was also Dhillon's office that tried, and failed, to indict Cassidy Hutchinson for the crime of pissing off Donald Trump.
So, the ink is barely dry on the Democrats' historic blowout and Dhillon has already dusted off her résumé. She knows she'll be a target of House Committees wanting an explanation for how she's been spending public funds on Trump's and MAGA's pet projects and not on, you know, enforcing civil rights. By quitting, she presumably hopes she will be moved down the list of Democratic targets. Whether she is right about that, we do not know.
Inasmuch as we already know the identity of the first domino to fall, the question now is who the second domino will be. One leading contender is Secretary of State Marco Rubio. At least by title, he is responsible for the Iran War, and for the failure to bring it to a quick and easy conclusion. Even a real diplomat could not have pulled that off, so there's no way that Lil' Marco could have done it. Still, Trump doesn't understand that, and since Iran has already become his explanation for what went wrong this week, he'll be looking for one or more scapegoats. Rubio would be a very possible target.
On top of that, Rubio fancies himself a potential 2028 presidential candidate. He knows that he's currently joined at the hip with an unpopular administration that just took it in the teeth at the polls, and that Trump's popularity is not likely to improve much in the next 2 years. In fact, the President's numbers are more likely to get worse than they are to get better. So, the Secretary would be wise to put some distance between himself and his current boss. For these reasons, we were not at all surprised to see a report that Rubio is planning to resign and to devote his time to his presidential ambitions. There is also a report that Trump lackey Sergio Gor, who is currently the U.S. Ambassador to India, is angling to replace Rubio. The White House denies everything; we'll soon see if they're being truthful.
Another possibility to be the next to go is Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. For reasons we will discuss next week, he is near-certain to be impeached, and it's not impossible he'll be removed. He might prefer to step down, which might forestall an impeachment (but might not, since it is possible to impeach someone even after they have left office). Like Rubio, Hegseth also has the problem that he's likely to be scapegoated for the failures in Iran. Further, Trump is clearly planning to re-escalate the war. He might prefer to have someone new in the job for when that happens.
The buzz surrounding Hegseth is loud enough that Trump gave him a vote of confidence yesterday. In sports, that is usually the kiss of death for a coach or a manager. In politics, it is not much better. And at the same time that Trump said he wants to keep Hegseth on, he also made a point of noting that the Secretary would do a great job if he happened to be appointed as U.S. Senator from Tennessee. Meanwhile, behind the scenes, Trump has been asking people about possible replacements for Hegseth. It does not look good for the Secretary, from where we sit. The one thing that is certain is that he will not be the next U.S. Senator from Tennessee. People familiar with the thinking of Gov.-elect Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) say she is not the slightest bit interested in picking him as her replacement.
A dark horse, when it comes to the exit-stage-left sweepstakes, is HHS Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr. Politically, he's gotten pretty radioactive because the policies he's pursued are killing people. Personally, he's not well liked by other members of the administration. And, perhaps most importantly for Trump, the MAHA vote did not come through for the Republicans on Tuesday. Some MAHA people did vote GOP, but others voted Democratic, or third party, or just sat this one out. We wrote this several times when Trump made the deal with Robert Jr.: Building your base out of flaky people is a risky move.
There is one other issue. Kennedy is very friendly with MAHA actor/musician Russell Brand, and they've been palling around a fair bit recently, including at Trump administration-sponsored events. As of yesterday, Brand is a convicted rapist, one who is likely to be in prison until he's an old and wrinkly rapist. Trump obviously does not have a problem with sexual assault, per se, but he does have a problem with anyone who serves to remind Americans of Trump's own history of sexual assault. So, the Brand association could be the tipping point for Kennedy Jr.
There are other folks (Susie Wiles? Scott Bessent? Stephen Miller?) who could be the next to exit, but we would say these three are the gold, silver, and bronze in this particular footrace. (Z & L)