Electoral-vote.com

It Was a Quarter-Century Flood

The scale of the Democrats' victory is still revealing itself. It is massive. Let's look at the macro aspects now. We will discuss individual winners and losers later this week. The AP has now called 254 House seats for the Democrats and 162 for the Republicans, with 19 still too close to call yet. The Democrats are likely to hit 260 seats.

Here is a map showing the shift per House district since 2024. With only a handful of exceptions, every district in the country moved toward the Democrats. The scale of the Democrats victory is gigantic.

Map showing shifts per congressional district since 2024

Here are the results of recent House elections. And while we are at it, the Senate ones as well. The percentages are of the popular vote. The difference between the parties' votes in the House this year is likely to be about D+13. The polls were predicting D+8 to D+11. Democratic turnout was unexpectedly high:

House
Year	Dem seats	Dem %	GOP seats	GOP %
2026	26x	55.7%	ca. 170 (?)	42.9%
2024	215	47.2%	220	49.8%
2022	213	47.3%	222	50.0%
2020	222	50.3%	213	47.2%
2018	235	53.4%	199	44.8%
2016	194	47.3%	241	48.3%
2014	188	45.5%	247	51.2%
2012	201	48.8%	234	47.7%
2010	193	44.9%	242	51.7%
2008	257	52.9%	178	42.4%
2006	233	52.3%	202	44.3%
2004	202	46.8%	232	49.4%
2002	205	45.2%	229	50.0%
2000	212	47.1%	221	47.6%

Senate
Year	Dem seats	Dem %	GOP seats	GOP %
2026	54-56	?	46-44	?
2024	47	50.2%	53	47.7%
2022	51	50.7%	49	47.4%
2020	50	47.3%	50	49.3%
2018	47	59.1%	53	38.7%
2016	48	53.6%	52	42.2%
2014	46	45.3%	54	51.5%
2012	55	54.4%	45	41.8%
2010	53	45.3%	47	48.2%
2008	59	52.2%	41	44.5%
2006	51	54.6%	49	41.8%
2004	45	51.0%	55	45.3%
2002	49	46.8%	51	49.9%
2000	50	47.0%	50	47.0%

As you can see, the Democrats are going to have more seats in the House than either party has had in the past 25+ years. That is a huge win. If they get to 56 Senate seats (by winning Alaska and Mississippi) that will be more than either party has had other than what the Democrats had for the 2-year period 2009-2011. By recent historical standards these majorities are huge.

Now, what about governors? If Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) and Cindy Holscher (D) end up winning the elections in which they are currently leading—in Alaska and Kansas, respectively—the Democrats will have 30 governorships and the Republicans will have 20. How does that stack up in the context of the past quarter-century? Here are the data:

Governors
Year	Dems	GOP	Inds
2026	30	20	0
2025	24	26	0
2024	23	27	0
2023	23	27	0
2022	24	26	0
2021	22	28	0
2020	24	26	0
2019	23	27	0
2018	23	27	0
2017	16	33	1
2016	16	33	1
2015	18	31	1
2014	18	31	1
2013	20	30	0
2012	20	30	0
2011	20	29	1
2010	26	24	0
2009	28	22	0
2008	28	22	0
2007	28	22	0
2006	22	28	0
2005	22	28	0
2004	22	28	0
2003	23	27	0
2002	22	27	1
2001	19	29	2
2000	18	30	2

Since 2000, the Democrats have never had more than 28 governorships, so this would be a 21st-century record for them. The Republicans had 30 in 2000 and a good run with 33 for 2 years after the election of Donald Trump in 2016. Then they lost 6 in 2018.

All in all, this is a high point for Democrats. They haven't had over 260 House seats in a quarter-century and in one election when they more senators than now (2008), they had fewer House seats and fewer governorships. Now it is up to them to do something with this new power. That is a subject we will begin to address in great depth tomorrow. (V)

This item appeared on www.electoral-vote.com. Read it Monday through Friday for political and election news, Saturday for answers to reader's questions, and Sunday for letters from readers.

www.electoral-vote.com State polls All Senate candidates