Dem
54
Ties
2
GOP
44
We'll probably have a few items like this in the next 5-10 days, as election results trickle in, and as those results begin to set the state for the already-underway 2028 cycle:
U.S. Senate, Alaska: The New York Times has crunched the data, and says that Mary Peltola (D), who currently sits at 48.63% of the vote with 76% reporting, is likely to win. The reason is that, based on exit polling, it looks like most of the votes for the fake Dan Sullivan will become Peltola votes if and when the ranked choice processing begins. This makes very little sense to us—what was the point of voting for the fake Sullivan if a person really wanted Peltola to win?—but maybe it was some sort of protest vote. Or maybe they got the message that the fake Sullivan was there to help Peltola, but they did not get the message as to how that was supposed to work. We should have further insight sometime today, as Alaska is scheduled to release its first update since Election Day. Indeed, it is at least possible that a winner will be declared sometime today.
U.S. Senate, Mississippi: By contrast, things in Mississippi are likely to remain murky for a while. In that race, Democrat Scott Colom (D) is up 2,500 votes out of about 1 million cast, with 97% reporting. The main reason that it's taking so long to produce a final tally is that, in the name of "election integrity," Mississippi Secretary of State Michael Watson (R) booted a bunch of people off the voter rolls using... data from credit reporting agencies. Basically, if people didn't have a recent credit history at the address at which they are registered, they were deemed potentially inactive, and were taken off the poll books. Those folks were usually allowed to cast provisional ballots, and what is happening now is that those provisional ballots are being evaluated. A big part of that is that ID was required to cast a provisional ballot, and those who did not have ID with them were given 5 business days to provide that ID to state officials. That deadline expires today.
As we have written many times, this kind of squabbling over ballots rarely results in a shift of more than a couple of hundred votes. That is because they are generally coin flips, and each side tends to lose and win coin flips in roughly equal measure. The only circumstance in which that is not true is if the questionable ballots might have some sort of demographic skew. In this case, they might. The people most likely to lack credit histories are people who do not have a bank account, or who cannot get a credit card. That suggests poor people and/or Black people, two demographics likely to skew toward Colom. Between that and his existing lead, well, if you had to bet, you should probably bet on Colom.
Even when Mississippi makes its final results known, that's almost certainly not the end of it. As we have noted, Mississippi has no provision for recounts, except at the business end of a court order. This being the case, the loser here is almost certain to run to court, because that's their last, best and only option. And because of the screwy use of credit records, something no other state does, the losing side will actually have an argument here. Mississippi has a deadline of December 13 to produce final results and a certificate of attainment. The state may need every one of those days to take care of business.
U.S. Senate, Ohio: As long as we are on the subject of certificates of attainment, Sen.-elect Sherrod Brown (D-OH) will be seated soon after he receives his. Because this was a special election to complete an unfinished term, he does not have to wait until January 3 to take his seat. As soon as he is confirmed duly elected, he is (again) a United States Senator. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) already had a small margin of error, as he prepares to deal with what figures to be a tough final session of his tenure. That one extra Democratic vote could end up mattering a lot, particularly if some of the retiring Republicam members decide to get an early start on the holidays.
Bye-Bye, Boebert: All of the outlets have now called Rep. Lauren Boebert's (R-CO) race; she lost to Rep.-elect Eileen Laubacher (D-CO) by about 1% of the vote. Boebert, of course, switched to a much safer district last cycle, but she neglected to account for Donald Trump, not to mention a Libertarian candidate (Douglas Mangeris) who took 3% of the vote. Libertarians tend to vote Republican when left with no other choice, so it's fair to guess that Mangeris cost Boebert her job. In any event, good riddance. Boebert showed integrity in demanding the Epstein files, but otherwise her show horsery served to demean her office. So did her indecorous public behavior. And her efforts to publicly shame her trans colleague, Sarah McBride (D-DE), were reprehensible.
Forever Young? Not So Much: Republicans are something of an endangered species among California officeholders these days, but there are still a few of them. Yesterday, another Republican was confirmed as part of the state's U.S. House delegation, as Ken Calvert won his race, which was very, very ugly. The bad news for the GOP is that this does not add a seat to their tally (currently at or about 165), as the very red district (CA-40) advanced two Republicans to the general. So the only question was whether the member for that seat would be Calvert or the also-Republican Young Kim.
Billions: As long as we're in California, the one-time assessment on billionaires (Prop.40) has failed. Don't read too much into this, though. A lot of Californians preferred an ongoing assessment, but there was already another proposition like that on the ballot (an extension on the higher income tax imposed on incomes of $371,000 or more). Expect this basic idea to come back, except in the form of an annual tax at a much lower rate than the 5% that Prop. 40 would have imposed. It is true that Prop. 42 looks likely to pass, and it theoretically forbids new taxes on assets. But what the proposition process giveth, the proposition process can taketh away, and a new wealth tax proposition is likely to contain a provision repealing Prop. 42 (if and when Prop. 42 passes).
State House, Georgia: The Democrats have flipped another state House, namely the one in Georgia. A total of 91 state House races have been called for the blue team, which means that even if the red team wins the three remaining uncalled races, they will still be in the minority with 89 seats. There will be no trifecta, however, because the Republicans will maintain control of the state Senate. The exact balance there awaits several runoffs, but it's likely to be a slim margin for the GOP (something like 29-26).
State House, Wisconsin: Meanwhile, Wisconsin Democrats are getting reading to take their new trifecta for a spin. The incoming leaders in the state legislature have promised to re-draw Wisconsin's gerrymandered map, and Gov.-elect David Crowley (D) said he will sign that bill. Currently, the Wisconsin delegation is 6R, 2D. As of January 3, it will be 5R, 3D. Assuming a fair re-draw, that should push it to 4R, 4D for 2028. Of course, with control of all the marbles, the blue cheese team could try to shoot for something like 6D, 2R.
2028 Presidential Election: The Crooked Con was in Washington, DC, this weekend. Well, OK, he's in Washington every weekend, but we're actually referring to a different Crooked Con, namely the annual convention for progressive activists held by Crooked Media. As is wont to be the case, a straw poll of attendees was held, to assess their feeling about the 2028 Democratic presidential field.
Normally, we wouldn't pay any attention to a wonky poll held by a non-representative segment of the electorate, 2 years before an election. But this one was... very interesting. The story that most outlets went with was that Kamala Harris finished 16th, with fewer votes than, well, just about everyone. Who cares about that?—It's no secret that the lefties don't like Harris. The much, much bigger story is that the winner of the poll, in a walk, was... Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA), with 38.4% of the vote. That is more than double the total for second-place finisher Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), who took 16.5%.
Readers probably don't need us to point out that Ossoff is centrist/center-left, and can win in purple and/or Southern states. If he is a candidate that progressives would be happy with, potentially forestalling Hillary vs. Bernie, Part 448, then that is something that Democratic operatives will have to sit up and take notice of.
2028 Senate Elections: Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), assuming he decides to run for reelection, has drawn his first official challenger. It is Ahmed Moor, a political newbie who is a Democratic Socialist and a Gaza-born Palestinian. That certainly presents a contrast to Fetterman, who has proven to be a centrist and, arguably, the Senate's staunchest advocate for Israel. We very seriously doubt the Senator will run again. And we are absolutely certain that many other folks will be throwing their hats into the ring. Some of those folks will be current officeholders with actual experience, money in the bank, and connections to the Party, to voters and to donors. So, Moor probably shouldn't start picking out swatches for the curtains in his Senate office just yet.
We'll have more on this subject tomorrow—at very least, an update on the new vote tally out of Alaska, and a check-in on the Kansas and Alaska gubernatorial races. (Z)