Dem
55
Ties
1
GOP
44
Word is out. It is open season on Sen. John Fetterman (D?-PA). Earlier this week, Ahmed Moor, a Palestinian born in Gaza who has never run for political office, announced he will challenge Fetterman in a primary in 2008, largely because Fetterman is a strong supporter of Israel. Fetterman is no doubt quaking in his boots about this.
However, on Tuesday, a much more serious challenge arose. Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-PA), who is about to start her fifth term in Congress representing a suburban Philadelphia district, said she was considering a run. That is politician-speak for "I am trying to round up enough donors to make a go of it." As an establish representative who is well known in the Philadelphia area, she is a far more serious threat than Moor because she knows how to run a campaign, knows donors, and more. Representatives run for the Senate all the time and often win. Considering how unpopular Fetterman is, she could likely beat him in the primary—under one condition.
The one condition is that no other Democrat jumps in. Unfortunately for Dean, it is likely that quite a few other Democrats will jump in. Her greatest threat isn't Fetterman, it's all the other Democrats. But now that a serious Democrat is basically in, the flood gates are open and we can expect other Pennsylvania representatives, state senators, and maybe a mayor or two to jump in soon as well. Pennsylvania doesn't have runoffs or ranked-choice voting, so Fetterman's best hope—assuming he runs, which he might not—is that there are so many Democrats in there and they split the vote so evenly that he could win with 20% of the vote. Because we would guess that 20% is about his ceiling these days. (V)