Dem
55
Ties
1
GOP
44
For many decades, political pundits have treated the Bible Belt and the Rust Belt as useful political constructs, with the idea being that the voting in the states of those regions tends to swing in the same direction most of the time. After taking note of the fact that most people in the so-called Rust Belt hate that term, let us move on to observe that there are two other "Belts" that might reenter the conversation in short order.
The first of those is the Black Belt: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. These are the states that were, far and away, the most reliant on slavery in the antebellum era, and where many descendants of enslaved people reside today. Not coincidentally, 11 of the 12 (all but Maryland) seceded to form the Confederate States of America. These states were dominated by overtly racist white Democrats for about a century after the Civil War, then by dog-whistle-racist white Republicans for a couple of generations after that. Now, particularly after what happened last Tuesday, a lot of the power in these places is in the hands of Democrats, particularly Black Democrats. If there's a realignment under way, in which moderate/liberal white Southerners and Black Southerners begin to really flex their muscles, then we might end up writing the phrase "Black Belt" many times in 2027 and 2028.
The second of those is the Corn Belt: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin. These are, by and large, the "prairie populist" states, where farming is a large part of the economy. The more urbanized of those states (e.g., Illinois) have been trending Democratic for quite a while. But notice how many of the more rural states (e.g., Iowa) might also be headed in that direction, thanks substantially to the farmer-unfriendly policies of the Trump administration. Folks in these places have cared about culture-wars issues for a very long time. But they tend to care even more about putting food on the table. If the Democrats can deliver on economic issues, that might be enough to put many of these states in, at very least, the purple column.
The development that prompts us to indulge in this speculation, as readers might guess, is that the Kansas gubernatorial race has been called by all the major outlets, and Democrat Cindy Holscher is the winner. With 98.1% of the vote reported, she leads Republican Ty Masterson by 0.6 points, 50.3% to 49.7%. Masterson would need about ¾ of the remaining vote to pull ahead, and that wasn't going to happen. To his credit, he has conceded graciously. That has actually been an important, if under-reported, story of these midterms: Most Republicans (with one very obvious exception) have done as American politicians have usually done for two centuries: If they lost, they accept that like grown-ups, and they have enough class to congratulate their victorious opponent. We can but hope that tradition is on its way to becoming firmly re-established.
Holscher's win gives us a number of interesting superlatives. Starting with the Kansas angle, this is the first time in 50 years that the same party has held the governorship for three straight elections. Meanwhile, the blue team took the three biggest marbles in the Kansas statewide races: the governorship, the U.S. Senate seat, and the attorney generalship. The AG win means that the obnoxious, racist, sleazy Kris Kobach will once again be booted from public office, hopefully never to return. The Republicans took two of the smaller marbles—Insurance Commissioner and Treasurer—while the secretaryship of state is still up in the air.
Turning our attention to national trends, once all the new women governors-elect are sworn in, the U.S. will have 18 states led by women. That is a record, by a fair margin—the previous high is 14. Kansas will also be one of three states to have had 4 or more woman governors, and one of three states to be on their second consecutive woman governor. That said, there is a state that has had five women as governor, and there is a state that will have their third consecutive woman governor by February of next year. Care to take a guess? We'll name the states in question at the bottom of the page.
Also, as long as we are on the subject of election results, Alaska released another bunch of votes yesterday. With 88% reporting, Democrat Jonathan S. Kreiss-Tomkins stands at 50.2% in the gubernatorial race. This is enough that numerous outlets have called the election for him. And truth be told, we don't know what the other outlets are waiting for. It is simply not plausible that the votes for the three Republicans will somehow coalesce around one Republican candidate. Some of the folks who voted for Bernadette M. Wilson, Dave Bronson or Treg Taylor must surely have ranked Kreiss-Tomkins second or third. Others must have ranked fewer than three candidates, meaning their ballots will eventually be exhausted.
As to the Alaska Senate race, which is the last major race to be uncalled by the AP, Democrat Mary Peltola's lead is now up to 5,800 votes, again with 88% reporting. That puts her at 49.2%, which is on the cusp of the no-ranked-choice-tabulation-needed promised land. Additional good news for her is that a bunch of votes from Matanuska-Susitna (a.k.a. Mat-su) that were uncounted have now been counted. That's traditionally a pretty Republican area, but adding those ballots only netted Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) 275 votes. He's now at 47%. Further, Peltola's vote total is once again greater than the combined total of both Dan Sullivans. So, Donald Trump might not get to send out all those posts he has undoubtedly been itching to write. Who knows how much longer this one will go uncalled, though the latest plausible day is next Wednesday, as ranked-choice processing is supposed to begin on Tuesday (if necessary). Luckily for Peltola, she already knows a thing or two about life in Washington, so it's not too big a problem if she misses freshman orientation. (Z)