Oct.01

electoral-vote.com

Dem 53

Ties 2

GOP 45

Three Surprising Midterm Themes

The Wall Street Journal has a short item about three surprising themes we are seeing in the midterms. None of these were on the radar at the start of the summer:

• Ticket Splitting : For years now, everyone assumed ticket splitting had gone the way of the dodo—dead and not coming back. But that conclusion now seems to be a bit hasty. In a number of states, the races for senator and governor seem to be diverging. The most surprising one is Texas, where James Talarico has maintained a consistent lead of a few points over Ken Paxton. At the same, the Real Clear Politics average has Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) leading Gina Hinojosa (D) by 2.3 points. That is not a Texas-size lead, but it does show that some, and perhaps many, Texans are going to split their votes.
  
  In Georgia, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is crushing it, but in the race for governor, Rick Jackson (R) is ahead of Keisha Lance Bottoms by 0.7 points. That is a 10-point spread with the Senate race.
  
  In New Hampshire, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) is leading former senator John Sununu (R) by about 6 points. On the other hand, Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) is demolishing Cinde Wamington (D) by nearly 12 points. That is an 18-point spread.
  
  In Ohio, it is not so extreme, but while Sherrod Brown is consistently ahead of Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH), Vivek Ramaswamy (R) is leading Amy Acton by about 1 point.
  
  Of course, there are also states where both top races are heading the same way.
  
  
• Republicans Are Divided: We are starting to see Republican candidates separating themselves from Donald Trump in a way that would have been political suicide just a few months ago. Just ask soon-to-be-former Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY).
  
  Rep. Elvira Salazar (R-FL) made a direct-to-camera ad directly criticizing Trump on account of his immigration policies. He lashed out at her, but she didn't back down. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is more than concerned—she is actually angry—with Trump about his tariffs on Canadian products since that hits her state hard. Reps. Tom Barrett (R-MI), Warren Davidson (R-OH), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) are angry with Trump about Iran and want the war there over. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) has attacked Trump's plan to import cheap beef, something Iowa ranchers are wildly opposed to. Sen. John Curtis (R-UT) wants Congress to investigate all of Donald Trump Jr.'s business dealings. Donald Trump Sr. is not so keen on that. Florida gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds (R) has removed mentions of Trump's endorsement from his campaign literature. In the next month, if desperation sets in, there could be more.
  
  
• Democrats Are United: For once, Democrats are not in disarray. Moderates, liberals and progressives are all pulling in the same direction and trying to take over the House and Senate. All of them—except sore-loser Jasmine Crockett—are supporting Democrats up and down the line, even candidates they strongly opposed earlier in the year. It is an amazing sight to see. Enjoy it until Nov. 4, when the 2028 presidential race starts and everybody on the blue team will immediately be at everybody else's throat. But for the midterms, it is all roses and rainbows.

Not mentioned in the WSJ article is the rise of AI and data centers as big issues that no one saw coming. (V)