Oct.02

electoral-vote.com

Dem 53

Ties 2

GOP 45

The 2028 Election: The Hill Judges the Presidential Fields

We aren't even past the midterms, and already 2028 presidential rankings are popping up. Let's have a laugh by looking at The Hill's ranking of the favorites for the Democratic nomination, along with our comments:

1. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY): Exciting the left does not mean winning Black voters in South Carolina.
2. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA): Too woke, slimy, and busy trying to un-say everything he has said for 8 years.
3. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA): If he wins in a landslide next month, then he will indeed be a serious candidate.
4. Kamala Harris: She wants to be president so badly. Unfortunately for her, few others feel the same way.
5. Pete Buttigieg: Were he not married to a man, he would be the second coming of JFK.
6. Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL): An old, establishment, pro-Israel Jewish billionaire. Just what the kids want.
7. Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA): He would win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. That's nothing to sneeze at.
8. Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD): Perfectly competent senator, but is this serious?
9. Rahm Emanuel: The list is getting worse by the minute. A washed-up Chicago pol with a LONG list of enemies?
10. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT): Like Van Hollen, a fine senator, but more likely a future Senate majority leader.

We are not impressed with this list. Name recognition impresses media pundits more than it ought to. AOC may well have a bright future, but being the Democratic nominee at 38? Democrats are 0 for 2 with highly experienced and capable women. We don't believe they will try again with a much less experienced one until sometime in the 2030s, at the earliest. Besides, AOC might well decide to run for the Senate instead, where she is probably the favorite rather than a deep underdog in a presidential race.

Missing from this list are several candidates who have more to offer than many of the people on the list. For example:

1. Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY): Democrats have done pretty well with moderate southern governors.
2. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ): Combat veteran, astronaut, and guy who pushes back hard against Trump sounds like a potential winner to us.
3. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ): A telegenic Latino from a swing state could bring Latinos, particularly Mexican Americans, back to the Democrats.

Roy Cooper is another southern (former) governor who would be a plausible candidate were it not for the fact that he is 69. Also, history has a warning for us. Candidates sometimes come out of the woodwork and surprise people. No one saw Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton or Barack Obama as top candidates 2 years in advance. There could easily be some dark horse candidate not on anyone's list now, particularly since there is a big election coming up in a month. Nobody could seriously put James Talarico in the top 10 right now, but if he wins in Texas by 5+ points? Lots of people are going to be talking about him then. Don't forget that Barack Obama was elected president while serving his first term in the U.S. Senate.

The Hill also did the same thing for the Republicans. Here we go:

1. J.D. Vance: All of Trump's meanness without any of the charisma. But if Trump endorses him, then maybe.
2. Marco Rubio: Against Vance, he wins the beer test. He is probably the GOP's strongest candidate.
3. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX): He's whip smart and very ambitious, but everyone hates him.
4. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL): He's even more fake than Gavin Newsom, and that's not easy.
5. Donald Trump Jr.: See Vance above and square it. Even with dad's endorsement, this is many bridges too far.
6. Tucker Carlson: The America Firsters would swoon and he is more polarizing than Trump, but... maybe.
7. Pete Hegseth: Niall Stanage, who put this list together, has been smoking something and inhaling deeply.
8. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR): An intelligent traditional conservative, but that's not what the GOP voters want.
9. Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R-AR): Too many Republicans think women belong in the kitchen, and not the WH kitchen.
10. Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA): If the fever breaks and Republicans are sick of Trumpism, this could be their man.

Unlike the Democratic field, which is wide open, Vance and Rubio are the clear frontrunners, unless Republicans want to move past Trumpism, in which case Kemp might grab the brass ring. A big factor is Trump. If he endorses anyone, that person gets a big boost. Some of the people missing from the list include:

1. Glenn Youngkin: A potential competitor to Kemp in the "not crazy" lane.
2. Nikki Haley: Another potential competitor to Kemp.
3. Ivanka Trump: More popular and competent than her brother, but again, not a party that's very woman-friendly.
4. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY): If Republican voters really, really decide they want to poke Trump and Trumpism in the eye, then Massie would certainly do that. It's a little nutty, but the prediction markets actually give him better odds than Sanders, Cotton or Hegseth.

Some real long shots are Marjorie Taylor Greene, Robert Kennedy Jr., and Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO).

Again, these rankings are for your amusement only. Don't believe them. There's a long time to go between now and Election Day 2028. (V & Z)