Dem
51
Ties
4
GOP
45
Donald Trump is desperate to get diesel prices down to avoid a disaster in the midterms. One of the things he thought of was blackmailing America's (former?) allies in Europe to get them to release massive amounts of diesel oil from their reserves. Rather than tell him exactly what they think of him, a number of them have caved and agreed to release the oil since they believed he would otherwise indeed carry out his threat to block diesel exports to their country if they failed to obey.
In a statement, the G7 leaders pledged to release 100 million barrels, but that will be over 4 months, of which a substantial amount will come in the next 20 days. Who will get the oil was not specified. After Nov. 3, Trump will probably have lost interest and won't care what they do. In principle, they could release 20 million barrels a month and simultaneously buy up 20 million barrels to replenish their reserves. That would formally be allowed by the agreement, which doesn't address replenishing the reserves.
E.U. member states are required to hold a 90-day reserve of net oil imports, but countries are free to determine their own mix of crude oil, kerosene, jet fuel and diesel. The Trump release might put some countries under the 90-day limit, but the E.U. is very unlikely to take any action against countries that (temporarily) drop below the requirement.
Of course, the long-term message everyone got is not good for the U.S. going forward. The message, of course, is that the U.S. is an unreliable supplier and maybe everyone should start looking for other suppliers. Even Russia and Iran might begin looking more reliable now. Another message that will resonate strongly in Europe is that this is the time to move to sustainable energy as quickly as possible, reducing the need for fossil fuels in the first place. Since the U.S. exports a lot of oil to Europe, that is a message U.S. oil companies will feel down the road. But Trump won't be president when the bill comes due, so he doesn't care.
A second message that everyone—Trump and the Europeans—got is this: Blackmail works. The consequence could be a "conscious uncoupling," a phrase popularized in 2014 by Gwyneth Paltrow in a somewhat different context. The fewer contracts one has with a rival, the less leverage the rival has over you. (V)