Oct.05

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

Ties 4

GOP 45

Some of the Gubernatorial Races Are Competitive

While much of the media is focused on the elections for Congress, there are also 35 gubernatorial elections next month. Many are in deep-blue or deep-red states and there isn't much to write about them, but a handful are competitive. While national politics gets more attention than state politics in most places, the things governors do often have a greater impact on people's actual lives than what the president and Congress do. Currently, 24 states have a Democratic governor and 26 have a Republican governor, but 50 million more Americans have a Democratic governor than a Republican one. Here is a rundown of some of the key races to watch and here is another one. Here is a brief summary of some of the more competitive races:

• Alaska: The ranked-choice voting system makes this state hard to poll. There are three Republicans on the ballot: fiery Trumpist Bernadette Wilson, former Anchorage mayor Dave Bronson, and former state AG Treg Taylor. The lone Democrat is Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins. If enough Republicans fail to list second and third choices, their ballots will be exhausted and Kreiss-Tomkins could win this one. Yesterday's NYT/Siena poll of the governor's races has Kreiss-Tomkins ahead of Wilson 52-48.
  
  
• Florida: Florida used to be the mother of all swing states. If you are old enough, you might remember the 2000 presidential race and all the legal shenanigans there about counting or not counting the (butterfly) ballots. In the end, George W. Bush won Florida by 537 votes and with it the presidency. It doesn't get much swingier than that. Al Gore is not a crybaby and didn't claim the election was stolen, even though the Supreme Court ordered re-counting of the ballots to stop before they were all re-counted. Now Florida is a red state. Could a Democrat be elected governor? Maybe, but only under very unusual circumstances.
  
  This year the race presents—you guessed it—unusual circumstances. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is term-limited. The Republican candidate is Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL), a very MAGA candidate in what could be a blue wave. Because MAGA is pretty toxic right now, Donalds wants to create separation between Donalds and Donald. To that end, Donalds has scrubbed his campaign website clean of nearly all mentions of Donald.
  
  But what makes the race really interesting is that the "Democrat" isn't a real Democrat. David Jolly is a former Republican who won election to the House in a special election in 2014 (as a Republican) and again to a full term in Nov. 2014. He lost reelection to Charlie Crist in 2016. He is a moderate. Nobody would confuse Jolly with Bernie Sanders, and attempts to label him as a pinko commie won't work. Still, Florida has become quite red, so Donalds is the favorite. Polls put him about 6 points ahead of Jolly, but in a big wave, there could be an upset here.
  
  
• Georgia: Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) is term-limited in this swing state. Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) is running against billionaire healthcare CEO Rick Jackson (R), who bought the GOP nomination fair and square with $80 million of his own hard-earned dollars. Jackson has a side gig as a film producer, including the Christian film 90 Minutes in Heaven. The film bombed and lost a lot of money, which Jackson tried to claim as a business deduction and which IRS disallowed, leading to a big fight.
  
  Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is running away with his race and there could be synergy between Bottoms and Ossoff, each bringing in groups of voters that could be useful to the other side. Specifically, Bottoms brings in Black voters and Ossoff brings in progressives. Once they are at the polling place, each group will probably support the other Democrat. Polling is very close and it could go either way. The national mood could also play a role here.
  
  
• Iowa: If there is a blue wave in November, Iowa could be right in the middle, figuratively and literally. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R-IA) is eligible to run again but decided not to, so wealthy businessman Zach Lahn bought the GOP nomination. He is facing popular state auditor Rob Sand (D), who has a reputation as just an ordinary guy who is good with numbers. Sand is leading in the polls and both Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato have the election leaning toward Sand.
  
  What could also have an effect is that three of the four House districts also feature competitive races. They have PVIs of R+4, R+4, R+2, and R+15, respectively, but IA-04 (the R+15 one) is an open seat because Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-IA) ran for governor in the GOP primary, got Trump's endorsement, and Lahn beat him anyway.
  
  Open seats are always wild cards. In the absolute best case, Sand could win the governor's race, Josh Turek (D) could be elected senator, and the Democrats could win three or four House seats. The race for governor could affect the next Senate down the road because Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), who is 93, may have an appointment with Father Time next year or in 2028.
  
  Yesterday's Siena gubernatorial poll has Sand ahead of Zahn 52-41. If it is that much of a blowout, Sand's coattails could help Josh Turek and the Democrats running for the House. If Iowa is a problem for the GOP, they are in some serious trouble.
  
  
• Kansas: This should be a no-brainer. Gov. Laura Kelly (D-KS) is term-limited and the Democratic bench in Kansas is as thin as Twiggy circa 1967. The Democrats nominated state Sen. Cindy Holscher. Republicans nominated the president of the state Senate, Ty Masterson. It is not quite a done deal for Masterson yet, for two reasons. First, he pushed through a controversial bank charter for a Texas bank whose CEO was later convicted of securities and wire fraud. Second, data centers are playing a big role in the campaign because they use immense amounts of water, and water is very important in an agricultural state like Kansas. Mind you, Masterson is still ahead in the polls by 7 or 8 points and is certainly the favorite. Yesterday's Siena poll has Masterson ahead of Holscher, 49-44, the only bit of good news for the GOP in that poll.
  
  
• Nevada: This is the Democrats' best gubernatorial pick-up opportunity, with Gov. Joe Lombardo (R-NV) running for reelection in a bluish swing state against state AG Aaron Ford. The Democratic state legislature has passed over 150 bills, many of them dealing with issues like affordability, paid family leave, gun safety, and more. Lombardo has vetoed almost all of them. Ford's pitch is that if he wins, the Democrats will have the trifecta and can get stuff done. Lombardo is very Trumpy and has Trump's endorsement. That may not be golden in a state with 29% Latinos and 20% multiracial or other minorities. Not to mention a state that has been hit hard by the tariffs—or, more precisely, by Canadians curtailing their Vegas vacation plans in protest of the tariffs.
  
  
• Ohio: Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) is term-limited. The Republican candidate is Vivek Ramaswamy, a Trumpy billionaire with connections to another Trumpy billionaire, Peter Thiel. Ramaswamy ran for president in 2024 and it was a disaster. He seems to regard Ohio as a consolation prize. The Democrat is the former director of the Ohio Dept. of Health, Dr. Amy Acton. Ramaswamy is trying to buy the election and Acton is running a populist campaign, not unlike that of Senate candidate Sherrod Brown. These things often correlate and the two could sink or swim together. On the other hand, this seems to be the Year of the Ticket Splitter, so any of the four combinations is possible. Recent polls have it a statistical tie, but yesterday's Siena poll has Acton ahead 49-44. That could be just statistical noise, though. It could probably still go either way.
  
  
• Oregon: The Democrats have the trifecta in Oregon, but Gov. Tina Kotek (D-OR) is not especially popular and she is once again facing state Sen. Christine Drazan (R). If this is a blue wave year, Kotek could pull this one out of the fire, but if it is an anti-incumbent year, Drazan—who does not act at all Trumpy (but is still very conservative)—could realistically win this one.
  
  
• Texas: Texas could be ground zero for ticket splitting, with clean-as-a-hound's-tooth James Talarico (D) leading dirty-as-the stuff-you-often-find-on-the-ground-behind-a-Texas-bull Ken Paxton (R) in the U.S. Senate race, while at the same time Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) edges out Gina Hinojosa (D) for governor. Hinojosa is a Latina from the Latino-heavy Rio Grande Valley and Abbott is a four-star general in the culture wars. There is a possible synergy between Talarico and Hinojosa, with each one drawing different groups to the polls who might also vote for the other Democrat. Most polls have Talarico and Abbott ahead in their respective races. However, yesterday's Siena poll has Hinojosa ahead of Abbott 49-46. If Talarico and Hinojosa win, it will be a political earthquake. If Alaska, Iowa, and Texas turn blue, that is the end of the Republican Party as we now know it. But we'll believe it on Nov. 4. Not before.
  
  
• Wisconsin: Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) is eligible to run for a third term but decided that two is plenty. The Democratic gubernatorial primary was wild and woolly, with candidates dropping in and out like flies. In the end, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley got the Democratic nomination and will face the very Trumpy Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-WI). Tiffany has backed Trump's trade war with Canada, which is not popular with the state's farmers. Wisconsin is always on the edge and it could go either way.

There you have it. All we can say for sure is that we're less than a month from Election Day, and it's going to be a wild one. (V)