Dem
53
Ties
2
GOP
45
Donald Trump has finally gotten the message that the evening of Nov. 3 will probably not be a fun time for the Republicans (see next item). He probably doesn't care so much about the fact that getting any more big tax cuts for himself and his billionaire buddies through Congress is very unlikely. But he is probably very worried that if the Democrats capture both chambers of Congress, every time the House impeaches him there will be a full-blown trial in the Senate, with evidence, witnesses, testimony from retired judges and law professors, etc. Desperate times call for desperate measures (like the Diesel Deal, above). But it is too late. That ship has sailed.
A new Politico/PF Global poll has shown that even an end to the war (which would require a complete surrender by Trump—and surrender is not one of his strengths) or lower gas prices (which is not doable before Nov. 3) wouldn't help in November. People have made up their minds already.
Here are some of the poll's findings:
As you can see, even if Trump were to get gas prices down $1, end the war, or conquer inflation, only 9-12% of the undecideds would vote for Republicans. What is also noteworthy is that if he did any of these things, it would make Democrats less likely to vote Republican, probably because they would see it as a meaningless trick. But Democrats aren't going to vote for Republicans anyway, so being more likely to vote Republican means going from a 0.01% chance to maybe a 0.02% chance.
Mike Noble, founder of the polling firm Noble Predictive Insights, said: "I think a lot of the die is already cast." A GOP operative working on battleground races said: "There's nothing that Trump can do, and frankly, even if he did something, no one would believe it anyway at this point." The poll showed that only a quarter of Americans think Trump could actually do any of these things. In short, the cake is baked and nothing Trump can do can unbake it in the next 3 weeks. He waited much too long before trying to deal with the problem. (V)