Dem
53
Ties
1
GOP
46
As the World Turns, Part I: Yesterday, we had an item on the Texas U.S. Senate race in which we noted that we'd been trying to get around to writing it for a week, and that every day's worth of delay added even more soap opera-esque elements to the equation. Well, just because we finally wrote the item does not mean the soap opera ended. The latest story, broken by The Wall Street Journal, is that Ken Paxton (R) spent New Year's Eve this year in Dubai, celebrating with his mistress and two fugitives from justice, accused embezzlers Anosh Ahmed and Sameer Suhail (who have since returned to the U.S. to face the music). Every headline describes Paxton as having spent the holiday "partying" in Dubai, but we do not believe Paxton has ever "partied."
Our Take: We've said it before, but if the Democrats can't win in this environment, against such a godawful candidate, then the Texas Democratic Party might as well shut down.
As the World Turns, Part II: The advertisements coming out of Texas are also an endless source of raised eyebrows. The latest from the Paxton campaign is a spot that brags, "Missing child posters go up, Ken Paxton takes them down," accompanied by a shot of a hand tearing a missing child poster off of a telephone pole. The point they are trying to make is that, as state AG, Paxton helped solve missing-child cases. However, the way it's presented, it looks like he tries to keep kidnappers from being caught by tearing down the posters as soon as they are put up.
Our Take: Normally, campaigns make sure to focus group their ads before releasing those ads into the wild. Does the Paxton campaign feel that's not necessary? Do they not have the money? Are their focus-group participants just stupid? This is hardly the first really clumsy ad to come out of that campaign.
Letter Boxing, Part I: Yesterday, a group of 12 senators sent Donald Trump a letter telling him that he must cancel the diesel deal he made with Russia. The signatories include six Democrats (Richard Blumenthal, CT; Jeanne Shaheen, NH; Dick Durbin, IL; Sheldon Whitehouse and Jack Reed, both RI; and Chris Coons, DE) and six Republicans (Thom Tillis, NC; Susan Collins, ME; Alan Armstrong, OK; Lisa Murkowski, AK; Mitch McConnell, KY; and John Cornyn, TX).
Our Take: A somewhat substantive rebellion against Trump, albeit one involving four senators who will definitely be out of office by January 3 (the four men), a fifth who may join them in the unemployment line (Collins), and a sixth who is already the most rebellious member of her conference (Murkowski). That doesn't necessarily demonstrate that the rest of the Senate Republican Conference is growing a spine, but it could be a start, especially since the six red teamers might also be speaking for colleagues who can't afford to take a stand before the election.
Letter Boxing, Part II: The Capitol Hill Post Office has a lot to do this week. In her capacity as Ranking Member of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) sent Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent a letter looking for answers to five questions, like "Beyond buybacks, what is [Treasury] doing to bring long-term [bond] yields down?" Bessent responded with an over-the-top snotty letter in which he accused the Senator of insincerity, referred to her "complete paucity of knowledge about financial markets," and offered to personally instruct her in "Foreign Exchange for Dummies." Then, to twist the knife a little more, he added a handwritten note: "Happy Indigenous Peoples' Day in advance to you and your family."
Our Take: Very obnoxious. And it makes clear that Bessent has no real plan for taming the economy, since if he did, the questions should have been eminently answerable.
The Power of Positive Presidential Delusion, Part I: It's about the time when folks in Washington (and elsewhere) take a look in the mirror, and maybe decide that they are made of presidential timber. And that means that, in the next few months or so, there are going to be a run of people teasing utterly laughable would-be runs. Getting an early start in the "What on Earth are you thinking?" sweepstakes is Sen. John Neely Kennedy, who told Meet the Press' Kristen Welker this weekend that he is definitely considering running.
Our Take: Kennedy is a MAGA backbencher whose only accomplishment is making a lot of appearances on Fox News, during which he invariably looks like he is chewing his cud. The United States has had exactly one John Kennedy as president. That sentence will remain true for the next 40 years, at least.
The Power of Positive Presidential Delusion, Part II: Former CNN anchor Don Lemon is also teasing a run, telling podcaster Spencer Macnaughton there is a 65%-70% chance that he'll toss his hat in the ring as an independent.
Our Take: A gay Black man with no experience in political office who got fired from CNN for misogyny. Yeah, people are going to be lining up around the block to vote for him.
Just Ducky, Part I: The current Republican majority in the House has done a lot of can-kicking this session, vaguely imagining that they'll tie up a lot of loose ends once the midterms are over, during the lame-duck session. As that time grows closer, however, reality is setting in. First, the tricky stuff they couldn't agree on (e.g., budget) isn't somehow going to get less tricky, particularly with just 24 days left in this session. Plus, some/many members who are retiring (voluntarily or not) might forgo a return to Washington and commence their retirement early. With a margin of 2-3 votes at most, that could be fatal for any plans Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has.
Our Take: If a bunch of Republican members are going to head for the hills early, that could also pave the way for things like an impeachment of Pete Hegseth, or a rebuke of the Russia diesel deal.
Just Ducky, Part II: Speaking of Mike Johnson, last week he somewhat implied that if the Republicans lose control of the House, he might retire. That is certainly plausible, since the last three GOP speakers retired as soon as they lost the gavel (and the one right before that only lingered for 10 months before retiring). Yesterday, Johnson walked that back and said that in the unlikely case the Republicans lose the House, he's planning to stay on as minority leader.
Our Take: We'll believe it when we see it. Herding the cats is a difficult job. Herding these particular cats is especially difficult. And herding these particular cats with severely reduced power, when you've already had a taste of being in the big chair, is more difficult still. We think it is more likely than not that the lame-duck session is his swan song. And we say that as eagle-eyed observers of politics who have been watching him like a hawk for 2 years. Of course, if we are proven wrong about that turkey, we'll be happy to eat crow.
To any reader who recognizes the reference in the headline (actually, arguably, two references): Well done! (Z & A)