Oct.15

electoral-vote.com

Dem 54

   

GOP 46

Top House Republicans Have Abandoned All Hope

Top congressional Republicans have privately told Politico reporters that holding the House is a lost cause. Five leaders said the situation is dire and that the House has all but slipped away and it is too late to fix the situation. One of them said that they were trying to save as many seats as possible, but it won't be enough. A senior House Republican said that Donald Trump was not helping them. He said: "President Trump has made this election all about himself. Now we have to survive that political storm." Another Republican said he expected the Democrats to pick up about 10 seats, including seats in Iowa, New Jersey, Nebraska and elsewhere.

Republicans are under extreme pressure in the lower Midwest, which is normally Republican. House (and Senate) races in Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas and other nearby states have highly contested races, something they normally don't experience. This is largely due to farmers who are angry with Trump for his actions that have cut off their markets (the trade war) and raised their fuel and fertilizer prices (the Iran War). Also, Trump's campaigning appears to be backfiring, energizing Democrats more than Republicans.

No one is expecting an October surprise. This year the surprise could be that there is no surprise. Surprise! Republican House members now realize that they are on their own and increasingly many are breaking with Trump on various issues, such as Trump's violating the sanctions bill—that he himself signed in September—by buying diesel from Russia. Not all Republicans are as in love with godless communism as Trump is. It takes some time to acquire the taste for it. Mike Rogers in Michigan and Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) are the latest to break with him. Trump seems to be gritting his teeth and not firing back—unless Republicans attack him directly. If someone says the diesel deal is bad, Trump could blame the deal on Stephen Miller, Susie Wiles or the Diesel Fairy and not himself.

As the House looks grimmer and grimmer by the day, Republicans are in triage mode. The NRCC and NRC are abandoning campaigns they think are hopeless. They have given up on defending Republican Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA), Monica De La Cruz (TX), and Tom Kean (NJ). They have also abandoned attempts to unseat Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar (D-TX), Kristen Rivet (D-MI) and Greg Landsman (D-OH). The money reserved for these districts can now flow to races that might yet be saved. More triage is expected in the next week or two.

An especially big problem is Latino-heavy districts. Many Latinos broke ranks and voted for Trump in 2024. A large number of them are now discouraged and are expected to revert to their normal voting patterns, which means voting for Democrats. Even in the face of mid-cycle gerrymandering, a number of these districts are in play now. Here are the Texas districts:

It is possible 2026 could be worse than 2020 for the Republicans with some, maybe all, of these districts going blue, turning the recent gerrymander into a dummymander.

In Florida there is potentially also a problem in Latino-heavy districts, again despite the recent gerrymander. Here are some of the problematic districts where an incumbent has to be defended or where hopes of knocking off a Democrat are fading:

Even in some districts with few Latinos, Republicans are worried. The Democrats' great red whale is Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA), who represents a D+1 district in suburban Philadelphia. Democrats have been after him for years, but he keeps defying the PVI. They think gas prices will get him this time. And there are more like him. (V)