Dem
54
GOP
46
Donald Trump doesn't care that much about the Republican Party, per se, but does understand that if the Democrats get the trifecta in 2028 and keep it in 2032, they will have time to undo much of what he did. He also dimly understands that if there were free and fair elections everywhere, Republicans, in their current configuration, would rarely win the White House and control Congress. So his strategy for dealing with that is to rig the rules to favor the Republicans.
One particular bee he has in his bonnet is the census. Art. I, Sec. 2, Clause 3 of the Constitution calls for a census every 10 years to apportion seats in the House. Later, the Fourteenth Amendment clarified that. Sec. 2 of the Fourteenth Amendment begins:
Representatives shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State, excluding Indians not taxed. [Our emphasis]
The Amendment specifies counting persons. Note that it does not say to count citizens. The founders knew the differences between persons and citizens very well. They used "citizens" in the Constitution seven times when they meant "citizens." Trump believes that immigrants are not persons and thus should not be counted. Specifically, he wants the 2030 census to omit from the count any immigrants who are not green card holders, even though this clearly goes against the verbiage in the Fourteenth Amendment. If he were to get his way, that would reduce the House representation and electoral votes of states with many immigrants, including students on visas, people with temporary protected status, refugees, asylum seekers and undocumented aliens. This is clearly a political goal of his to reduce the political power of blue states.
This is not the first time Trump has barked up this tree. In 2019, in Dept. of Commerce v. New York, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that the Census Bureau could not add a question to the 2020 census about citizenship because that doesn't matter for apportioning House seats. But he is back at it.
Civil rights groups and others are going to fight this tooth and nail—again. In addition to its clear unconstitutionality, they fear it will cause some immigrants to refuse to fill out the census form, leading to an undercount. This will affect not only House representation and electoral votes but also how federal money is distributed, since many programs send money to states based on their populations, as determined by the census.
Democrats are fully aware of the consequences of the proposed rule change. Sen. Andy Kim (D-NJ) said: "An accurate census count is at the very foundation of ensuring equal representation across our country and delivering federal funds where they're needed most. The Census is enshrined in our Constitution and not up for political debate." The counting of persons, including noncitizens, has been the standard practice since the first census in 1790.
Of course, as usual, Trump gets the details wrong. One analysis of the effects of Trump's proposal is that Texas and Florida, which have many immigrants, would each lose a House seat whereas Minnesota, Oregon, and Ohio would each gain a seat.
Also a factor here is that even if Trump gets the rule through, the next president will be inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2029, a year before the census starts. If need be, the next president could order the rules changed. That might slow down the process, but the census need only be conducted sometime in 2030. It is usually done in the spring, but Congress could change the law so that as long as it is completed by Dec. 31, 2030, no foul. (V)