Oct.19

electoral-vote.com

Dem 54

Ties 1

GOP 45

What to Watch on Election Night

Ronald Brownstein has an interesting column on bellwethers to watch on Election Night. He notes that veteran Democratic pollster John Anzalone says the vibe he is getting is that this election will be like 1994, where the whole country is in play. He thinks there will be a number of "accidental House members" in January, people no one—the candidate included—expected to win but won anyway. Veteran Republican pollster Whit Ayres is worried about trend lines and is also bracing for unexpected and unpleasant surprises. He basically agreed with Anzalone's assessment when he said: "In this environment, I think we are going to find states in play that we never thought would be in play come in [sic] November."

Anzalone thinks there will be three narratives on Nov. 4:

1. Latinos, young voters, and Black voters returned to the fold and voted Democratic.
2. Republicans are seriously bleeding working-class non-college white voters.
3. Republicans still control rural areas, but the gap is narrowing.

That said, certain counties stand out as bellwethers. They fall into six rough categories, as follows, with these examples:

Urban Centers

Democrats' performance in big urban centers, especially with young Black voters, will be a key to Democrats' hopes. They need to do more than win here. They need to rack up huge margins:

• Wayne County, MI: If Black urban voters come home, it will be here in Detroit. Turnout is key.
• Cuyahoga County, OH: Same here in Cleveland. Democrats take these for granted at their peril.
• Tarrant County, TX: A majority nonwhite county including Ft. Worth; could be a bloodbath for Ken Paxton (R).
• Hennepin County, MN: This educated, affluent county that includes Minneapolis nosedived for the Dems in 2024.

Traditional Suburbs

The well-off, white, highly educated suburban counties outside major cities used to be Republican. They have moved left in recent years. But will they stay that way when Trump is not on the ballot?

• Delaware County, OH: Turnout in this heavily white, wealthy, educated county could test Trump hatred as a force.
• Waukesha County, WI: Same story as Delaware County, OH.
• Oakland County, MI: How will Abdul El-Sayed (D) do with affluent (Republican-leaning) suburbanites?
• Kent County, MI: This county around Grand Rapids is about average. How will Abdul El-Sayed do here?
• Johnson County, KS: This well-off very highly educated county is the key to Adam Hamilton's (D) insurgent campaign.

Suburban Melting Pots

These counties are traditional (Republican-leaning) suburban counties that have increasingly large middle-class minority populations. How will that affect their votes?

• Gwinnett County, GA: Jon Ossoff won many Black, Asian, and Latino voters in 2020. Can he up that?
• Cobb County, GA: It is west of Atlanta instead of east, like Gwinnett, but otherwise same story.
• Maricopa County, AZ: Joe Biden was the first Democrat in 70 years to win it. How will Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) do?
• Orange County, CA: This formerly GOP county is now half Latino and Asian. How will Trumpism play here?
• Collin County, TX: This Trump, Biden, Trump county full of Asians, Latinos, and Black voters is a true bellwether.

Latino Enclaves

Donald Trump made huge gains with Latinos in 2024, especially young ones. How will his deportation policy play out this time? These counties will tell:

• Hidalgo County, TX: This border county will show how well Trump's policies are playing with Mexican Americans in McAllen.
• Cameron County, TX: Another border county, this one around Brownsville, but otherwise like Hidalgo.
• Miami-Dade, FL: Another heavily Latino county, only this time Cubans and South Americans.
• Bronx County, NY: The Bronx is now heavily Puerto Rican and Dominican. How will these Latinos vote?

Blue-collar Areas

White working-class voters without college degrees used to be the very base of the Democratic Party. Now they are the very base of the Republican Party. They love Trump on the cultural issues but will they vote their prejudices or their wallets this time?

• Luzerne County, PA: This Wilkes-Barre-based county is a Republican county of late. Will it still be this year?
• Lackawanna County, PA: This Scranton-based county could help Paige Cognetti beat Rep. Rob Bresnahan.
• Lorain County, OH: Sherrod Brown must get his margin here way, way up from the +6 points he had in 2024.
• Mahoning County, OH: This county around Youngstown in Northeast Ohio is also a key Brown target.
• Macomb County, MI: Home of the fabled "Reagan Democrats" is critical for Abdul El-Sayed and Jocelyn Benson.
• Catawba County, NC: Another blue-collar county, but with a heavy dose of evangelicals.

Rural Redoubts

Rural areas are the Republicans' last bulwark. The issue is not whether they will stay red, but by how much. That is crucial in statewide races. Trump's policies have hurt farmers on diesel, fertilizer, foreign markets, and rural hospital closures. How much stress can these overwhelmingly white counties take?

• Darke County, OH: This county produces corn, soybeans, chickens and eggs.
• Grant County, WI: This county produces dairy, corn and soybeans.
• Scott Count, IA: Corn, soybeans and hogs are the mainstay of the economy here.
• Ford County, KS: A huge meatpacking plant in Dodge City is here, but it is staffed by Latino factory workers.

This list is from CNN, so hopefully as results begin coming in on Election Night, they will pay special attention to these bellwether counties to see how various demographic groups are actually voting. (V)