Dem
54
Ties
1
GOP
45
Jon Ossoff is the Georgia senator up this year, not Raphael Warnock. Nevertheless, Warnock is out there stumping and raising money like crazy. And it isn't even in Georgia. Or for himself. Or for Ossoff (who doesn't need any help). Warnock is out there campaigning for Scott Colom, a local D.A. who is running for the Senate against Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) in Mississippi. Warnock has even raised $500,000 for Colom. It is a bit odd for a senator in one state to be working really hard for a candidate—and not even a Senate colleague at that—in a different state. What's going on?
Warnock knows exactly what he is doing. It is a long shot gamble, but there isn't much of a downside for him and there is plenty of upside if he wins his bet. Mississippi is more competitive for the Democrats than many people realize. To start with, 38% of the voters are Black and it is a safe bet that virtually all of them are Democrats. This means all a Democrat needs is 12% of the white vote. That is not impossible under exactly the right circumstances. Those would be: (1) an excellent Democrat (Colom is a law-enforcement official); (2) a weak Republican (Hyde-Smith is a run-of-the mill senator who got only 54% of the vote in 2020); (3) a poor economy (gas, diesel, and fertilizer prices are high); (4) an unpopular Republican president (Trump is at 44% approval in Mississippi) and (5) a blue wave election (seems likely). Hyde-Smith led Colom 52%-48% in an October poll. You never know.
Hyde-Smith made a Joni Ernst-size blunder when asked about the high price of beef. She said: "You have so many proteins to choose from." This remark quickly became the core of a Colom ad:
The punch line of the ad is: "Pick another senator instead."
If Warnock helps bring this one home, he will be a hero to Democrats for helping to win an "unwinnable" state no one was counting on. It will also mean a fifth Black Democratic senator, which Black voters nationally will appreciate. Additionally, if Colom, Ossoff, James Talarico and Roy Cooper all win (or if even ¾ of them win), suddenly Democrats will realize they can compete in the South.
But Warnock isn't just being a party man. There is something in this for himself. He is thinking about running for president in 2028 and the South has a large number of convention delegates. If Ossoff was telling the truth when he said he was not going to run for president, Warnock would be the favorite to scoop up a large fraction of them. To that end, he is also criss-crossing the South campaigning for other Democrats in the region—and getting out there for the voters to see him. He has nothing else to do this fall, so why not? It's worth a shot. (V)