Dem
54
Ties
1
GOP
45
The coming year is likely to be awful for congressional leaders, no matter who is in charge. For each one, the situation is different.
In January, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) can probably keep his job if he wants to, but why would he want to? If Democrats take the House, which seems very likely, and Republicans hold onto the Senate, even if it is 50-50 and J.D. needs to be called in often to break ties, Donald Trump will be constantly urging Thune to pass bills and send them over to the House, where all are certain to end in the paper shredder. This will wear poor Thune down. If Republicans lose both chambers, Trump will constantly belittle Thune as a weak loser who can't do anything. It will be embarrassing and not fun at all.
For Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), getting a majority will mean he has to try to legislate. But his majority is likely to be thin, a few seats at most. Getting the support of Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico and Josh Turek (IA) on bills sponsored by Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) will be tough. Schumer won't have a working majority on anything and he will have a restless base that demands he use his new majority to get stuff done. If Schumer fails to get the majority, his party members will see him as a failure and the term starting in Jan. 2027 will almost certainly be his final term as a leader and also in the Senate. If Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) doesn't primary (and beat) him in 2028, some other young Democrat will. It will be a disappointing and ignominious end to his long political career.
If Republicans miraculously hold the House against all odds, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will be hailed as a conquering hero and will be able to keep his job if he wants it, but his margin will be so thin he won't be able to get anything done and Trump will dump on him all the time. If Republicans lose the majority, Johnson probably won't run for minority leader. It is a thankless job with no power. It might be good for some old-fashioned grandstanding though, so Rep. Jim "Gym" Jordan (R-OH) might try to get it. He loves grandstanding. If Johnson drops out of the leadership and the Democrats have the majority, the new Republican leader will have no power, no ability to raise lots of money for members, and will never be able to herd the cats, especially with Trump trying to call all the shots from the sidelines.
The leader in the best position will be Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY)—if the Democrats have a huge majority. Then it might be possible to pass bills and send them over to the Senate to die. At least he can then tell his base that he tried and that it isn't his fault nothing got through. That is not likely to mollify them much, though. If he has a small majority, like Schumer, he will have to deal with the split between progressives and moderates and may find it difficult to get anything through. One thing he could do is have the House turn into the world's greatest investigative body, with the entire 2 years devoted to exposing the many criminals in the administration and preparing the footwork for a future Democratic AG to rain down the indictments.
Short of a massive blue wave that gives the Democrats huge majorities in both chambers, Democrats are unlikely to get many bills through Congress, and those that do get through will be promptly vetoed. However, if Schumer and Jeffries are willing to play the long game, their strategy should be to pass popular bill after popular bill, have them all vetoed, and then have the Democrats run in 2028 on electing a president who will sign the bills next time they are passed.
One thing they have to carefully maneuver through is the desire of the activist base to focus on investigating the administration and the desire of the majority of Democratic voters to get prices down. There are bills that can be passed that do the latter, but to get the full effect, those bills, and not another witness in some investigation, have to be on the front pages every day. Bills aimed at affordability include these:
These can be combined with higher taxes on billionaires to show that it is the billionaires who are paying for all the subsidies. Week after week after week there could be debate on one of these bills, grabbing the national attention, followed by a vote every Friday morning with Democrats in favor and Republicans opposed. The message every week would be: "Democrats want to tackle affordability. Republicans want to protect billionaires." Democratic voters will like this (see above) and will be repeatedly told that to make these things actually happen, what is needed is to elect a Democratic president in 2028. The problem is that voters can focus on only one thing at a time, and Jeffries will have to decide whether it is the affordability-bill-of-the-week or the corruption-investigation-of-the-week. Whatever he decides, some Democrats will be angry with him. (V)