Dem 53
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Ties 2
GOP 45
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The Truman Show

We have now written this basic item half a dozen times in the last 6 weeks or so, but yesterday there were two more major polls where Donald Trump hit his all-time low in terms of approval rating.

First up is the newest from Reuters/Ipsos. At the moment, they have Trump with 66% disapproval (that's two-thirds!), 31% approval, putting him underwater by 35 points. That is his worst result from this poll in either term, and is also a bad place to be 2 weeks before an election. On the generic Congressional ballot, the poll has Democrats up 47% to 35%, for a net of D+12.

And then there is the newest from The Washington Post/ABC (who also uses Ipsos to conduct their polls, it should be noted). This one also has Trump at 66% disapproval, though with 33% approval, meaning he's "only" underwater by 33 points. That is also a low for him, for either term. WaPo/ABC has the generic Congressional ballot at 52% for the Democrats, 44% for the Republicams, for a net of D+8.

And, as long as we are at it, here's where Trump's approval rating sits with the various aggregators:

Aggregator Approve Disapprove Net
Silver Bulletin 37.5% 60% -22.5%
The Economist 34% 61% -27%
CNN Poll of Polls 34% 65% -31%
The New York Times 37% 61% -24%
Race to the WH 36% 58% -22%
Cook Political Report 37% 61% -24%
Average 36% 61% -25%

The worst midterm approval rating in the polling era belongs to Harry Truman, who was around 34% at the time of the 1946 midterms. So, Trump has a real chance to make history and set a record here. And in case you are wondering, the Republicans gained 54 seats in the House in the 1946 midterm elections, along with 9 seats in the Senate. Due to extensive gerrymandering, we can't imagine Democrats flipping 54 House seats. However, if you squint really, really hard, it is possible to imagine 9 Senate seats flipping, namely: IA, KS, ME, MS, MT, NC, NE, SC, and TX. It would take a monstrous killer blue tsunami, though. (Z)



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