Dem
53
Ties
2
GOP
45
Republicans redrew the maps in a number of states, expecting to pick up a dozen or more seats. A new analysis by Reuters shows that nine of the redrawn districts are either leaning Democratic or too close to call. That wasn't the game plan. Some of that is due to Trump's unpopularity and some of it is due to incorrect assumptions about how specific demographic groups would vote.
Things are moving rapidly. Back in June, Republicans had increased their advantage in 16 redrawn districts studied. Nine are now in doubt. The message here is that you can be too smart for your own good. Or maybe too stupid. Erin Covey of the Cook Political Report said: "There is absolutely a world where the Republicans don't flip any of the four seats they redrew in Florida." She thinks that Republicans might net +3 seats from the map exercise, but in a blue tsunami, the net effect could actually be negative for the Republicans. Jacob Rubashkin, who works for Inside Elections, said the redistricting will almost surely be a net gain for the Republicans, but maybe not a big one.
Most of the Republican gains were supposed to come from Texas and Florida. There, new maps reshaped nine districts held by Democrats. They were redrawn to be districts that Trump won from 9 to 20 points, based on the assumptions that Latinos would vote the same way in 2026 that they did in 2024. And both states have a lot of Latinos. It apparently didn't occur to the mapmakers that Latinos might react to the hundreds of thousands of Latinos being swept off the streets and deported. Who could have known?
One factor that needs to be taken into account is that because candidates running in new districts are not well known in their new districts, a large amount of money has been pumped into the new districts, and that could influence the results. Four of the six districts that have gotten the most outside Republican spending are new districts; these districts are averaging $12 million each.
In Texas, there are different problems. For example, the seat of Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R-TX) was redrawn as R+18, but almost all of it is new for her. She doesn't know the voters there and they don't know her. Her opponent is a Tejano music star, Bobby Pulido, who is very widely known in the district, even though he has never run for office before. In general, when districts are redrawn, it matters why it has been redrawn. If it has been redrawn to unseat a Democrat, the Republican won't be well-known but the Republican wouldn't have been well-known in the old district either. But if a district is redrawn to strengthen a Republican incumbent, one effect of doing this is saddling the incumbent up with many voters who don't know him or her, as in the case of De La Cruz. That may not always work so well.
The redistricting cuts both ways. California also drew a new map targeting five Republican-held seats. In at least two of them, it looks to be a tight race and the map may not produce the desired results. Voters hate this kind of gamesmanship. If Democrats are smart, they will try to pass a bill banning gerrymandering (e.g., by mandating truly independent redistricting commissions). If Republicans kill the bill, that becomes a campaign issue for 2028. (V)