Dem
53
Ties
2
GOP
45
Political eras are usually defined by presidential elections. Think 1876 (end of Reconstruction and civil rights, start of a mostly Republican era with Hayes, Garfield, Arthur, B. Harrison, T. Roosevelt, Taft); 1932 (FDR and Democratic dominance for 20 years) and 1980 (Ronald Reagan and the rise of conservative Republicans). Nevertheless, midterms often set the stage for what is to come and give a big hint which way the wind is blowing. In 2010, for example, the Republicans flipped six Senate seats, 63 House seats, and six governorships. Over the next 16 years, despite Barack Obama's reelection, the Republicans controlled the House for 12 years and the Senate for 10. Also, the Tea Party movement of 2010 was a harbinger for MAGA and Trump 6 years later.
A disastrous midterm for the Republicans (not just a mediocre one), could signal the end of MAGA and the Trump era. Voters would see it didn't deliver much of value to them. It also could presage a strong Democratic victory for the White House in 2028. Weak incumbent presidents often weigh their party down, as in 1932 (Herbert Hoover), 1980 (Jimmy Carter) and 1992 (George H.W. Bush).
Also, if the Democrats capture the House and Senate this year, they are likely to hold them in 2028, especially if a Democrat is elected president with a weak, very unpopular Republican in the White House. That would mean a Democratic trifecta in 2028 and possibly a major shift in the direction of the government.
This year may be important in another respect. It could be the last hurrah for Boomer presidents in the Clinton-Bush-Obama-Trump-Biden-Trump era (and, yes, we know Biden is not technically a Boomer). We are already seeing signs this year of younger candidates replacing older candidates. That trickle is likely to be a torrent in 2028, starting at the top. Most of the likely presidential candidates are much, much younger than Biden and Trump. J.D. Vance is 42. Marco Rubio is 55. On the Democratic side, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is 37, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is 39, Pete Buttigieg is 44, Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) is 46, Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) is 48, Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD) is 48, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) is 50, Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) is 53, Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) is 57 and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) is an elderly 59. Their formative experiences are very different from the Boomers. (V)