Dem
52
Ties
3
GOP
45
By and large, the polls have been getting a bit tighter this week, which will make Republicans happy. There are two theories as to what is going on. The Republican-friendly theory is that pollsters have all moved to "likely voters" instead of just polling "registered voters," and likely voters are more Republican-inclined than registered voters are. The Democratic-friendly theory is that the pollsters are tweaking their models to produce closer races, so as to give themselves cover for whatever happens. (Z)
| State | Democrat | D % | Republican | R % | Start | End | Pollster |
| Maine | Troy Jackson | 49% | Susan Collins* | 49% | Oct 16 | Oct 20 | Beacon + Shaw |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas | 50% | John Sununu | 43% | Oct 19 | Oct 20 | Saint Anselm Coll. |
| South Dakota | No Democrat | 0% | Mike Rounds* | 50% | Oct 19 | Oct 20 | Emerson Coll. |
| South Dakota | No Democrat | 0% | Mike Rounds* | 56% | Oct 12 | Oct 14 | Mason Dixon |
| Texas | James Talarico | 49% | Ken Paxton | 48% | Oct 17 | Oct 19 | Emerson Coll. |
| Texas | James Talarico | 51% | Ken Paxton | 49% | Oct 17 | Oct 21 | ActiVote |