Dem
52
Ties
3
GOP
45
Tomorrow, there will be another foreign election, one of even greater consequence, that will put Trumpist governance to the test. That would be in Israel, where voters will get their first chance since the October 7 attacks to weigh in on the government of Benjamin Netanyahu.
Trump and Netanyahu have a complicated relationship, one that becomes more fraught, or less so, depending on the extent to which Netanyahu is doing what Trump wants, and Trump is doing what Netanyahu wants. That said, the PM needs the President right now, and the President knows that if there's a new PM, that PM will be less pliable than Netanyahu is. U.S. presidents are really supposed to stay out of foreign politics, for the obvious reason that backing the wrong candidate can lead to a strained relationship with that nation if the other guy wins. But since when does Trump care about appropriate behavior? So, he gave Netanyahu a full-throated endorsement. Netanyahu said it wasn't enough, and he'd sure like Trump to say more (the PM even suggested some talking points). So, Trump delivered a second endorsement yesterday.
When the Knesset dissolved back in July, Netanyahu's coalition was even more tenuous than the one led by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). The PM and his allies controlled 60 of the 120 seats, the opposition had 59, and one member was unaffiliated. Obviously, even a slight shift in public opinion could mark the end of Netanyahu's time as prime minister.
Because of the way the Israeli system works, polls do little to help predict whether that will be Netanyahu's fate. Multiple dozens of political parties have thrown their hats and their kippahs and their keffiyehs into the ring, and under the rules governing this election, it takes 3.25% of the vote to claim a seat in the Knesset. On the other end, no individual party has ever claimed enough seats to form a government by itself, and that is certainly not going to change this year. Roughly speaking, the Netanyahu bloc appears to have about 48 seats in hand, while the anti-Netanyahu bloc appears to have about 54 seats. So, there are going to be some serious negotiations with whatever smaller parties clear the 3.25% threshold.
It is probable that the largest party in the new Knesset will be the Yashar Party, led by Netanyahu rival Gadi Eisenkot. That means that if there's a new PM, Eisenkot is the likeliest candidate. However, there are no guarantees here; even if Eisenkot is able to put together a 61-seat bloc, he might have to power-share, or accede to some other person as PM. It is also very possible, having happened several times in recent memory, that nobody is able to put together a 61-seat bloc, and Israelis will have to head to the polls again early next year. (Z)