Dem
52
Ties
4
GOP
44
We got a long and, we think, interesting report that we're going to start with, and then follow with a few brief responses to yesterday's Local Bytes:
D.E. in Ann Arbor, MI, writes: I've just returned from three hours of door-knocking, canvassing on an early Sunday afternoon, for statewide (Michigan) and local Democratic candidates on the maze-like streets of a suburban neighborhood in my hometown of Ann Arbor:
It was my third stint, out of a scheduled six before the election. The minority who answered their doors, or those I encountered outside working on lawn or car chores, were uniformly supportive of all the candidates I was touting, including Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed. That isn't too surprising, since I was encountering voters from a list compiled on the Democratic canvassing app called Minivan, which is designed for volunteers to contact only voters deemed to be sympathetic.
All the voters I spoke with had plans to vote in the election, and quite a few of them had already voted. I would describe their mood as determined but subdued, buoyed by reports of polls showing Donald Trump to be extremely unpopular and (D) candidates winning in usually-red areas, but also cognizant of the sad state of our country and the many grievous losses our side has sustained over the last 10 years, sometimes unexpectedly.
I tried to be guided by what a canvassing trainer told me: "They may not remember exactly what you said, but they will remember how you made them feel. That's what will get them out to vote for our candidates."
I learned about how three little boys plan to dress for Halloween and how much a guy paid for the quarts he was using to change his oil. I listened to a guy reminiscing about a camping trip he and his wife took to the Maritime provinces of Canada a few years ago.
I listened as a fellow Ann Arbor teaching retiree told me how her husband dropped dead right after they retired: "We had plans; this was not the plan." I listened while an 80-something man, clearly lonely, told me about how he met his wife of 60 years on a blind date, how she was a polio survivor who wore a knee brace, how she eventually sank into dementia and recently died.
One can infer absolutely nothing from the level of support for Abdul in dark-blue Ann Arbor, and in fact I have spoken with a friend and a family member this week who were both deeply pessimistic about his chances, believing a Muslim candidate can't win statewide, given our purple state's large helping of racism and Islamophobia, amplified by lots of negative TV and Internet ads. One voter I talked to referred to the "lies the Republicans are spreading on their TV ads."
Ann Arbor is a prosperous small city, anchored by a premier research university, so on average citizens here aren't hurt as badly by high fuel prices as they might be in struggling postindustrial towns or rural areas. That isn't to say, however, that there aren't many folks who are struggling to keep up with their bills.
Still, the mood in the neighborhood I walked today was upbeat, lifted by the exceptionally nice fall weather we've had for the last few weeks and by kids' anticipation of Halloween fun and loot. Many houses were decked out in spooky decor to greet the upcoming holiday.
Since the folks whose doors I knocked on were so positive, I told the people I randomly encountered outdoors (those who weren't on my Minivan list) that I was getting out the vote for the Dems and offered them a piece of literature. Everyone took it, and I encountered no hostility.
As always, one wonders how accurate the Minivan lists are, though they got everyone's name right, at least. One also doesn't know exactly on what basis the list of those to be contacted is compiled. There were lots of houses with Abdul yard signs that weren't on my list to contact. Is that because HQ thought their votes were assured, or were they just missed?
I have one friend who I sometimes canvass with who is so distrustful of the Minivan lists that he just knocks on every door on the "turfs" he's given. He reports lots of interesting conversations with voters of all varieties. I'm not quite brave enough for that at this point.
Democrats always win handily in all local elections here, and the biggest drama locally surrounds a city ballot initiative that pits one stripe of progressives against another. It calls for the city to take control of our local utility (gas and electric) and run it as a public entity. There are many yard signs for and against this proposal, and the discussion about it goes on intensely on the Nextdoor app.
A 20-something woman who attended the school where I taught is a higher-up in the El-Sayed campaign. When I was trained for canvassing this year, the trainer said we need only inquire whether the voter was supporting El-Sayed, that if they were, it followed they were supporting all the other Dems. There seems to be real enthusiasm about his candidacy here, and in three days of speaking with Dem voters, I have only encountered one who was undecided about supporting him, as well as one who told me her daughter felt that way.
On my way one-mile bike journey home, I decided to count Abdul yard signs. I saw eight; there were no Mike Rogers signs (or any for any other GOP candidate). Again, not too meaningful here in lapis-lazuli Ann Arbor. Whatever else happens on election night, El-Sayed will win here in a landslide.
N.C. in Columbus, MS, writes: Thanks for all the work you are doing! As a Mississippi resident, I wanted to write in with a correction/clarification to the comment from T.G. in St. Paul. Mississippi does have runoff elections if no candidate wins a majority under many circumstances (primaries, elections for statewide offices, judicial elections, and special elections for state and federal legislative offices—which are run without party labels). This is how Cindy Hyde-Smith and Mike Espy ended up in a runoff in the 2018 Senate special election held after Thad Cochran resigned. Runoff elections are not required in regular elections for Congress or state legislature, however. Hyde-Smith or her Democratic opponent, Scott Colom, could win on November 3 with a plurality.
So yes, it's possible that third-party candidate Ty Pinkins could be a spoiler, and on the face of it he might seem more likely to take votes from Colom (Pinkins, like Colom, is a Black man and has run for office as a Democrat in the past). That said, as a Colom supporter I'm not too worried. Pinkins has not been visibly campaigning for the office, and I think the 6% of people saying they will vote for him in a poll are mostly either low-information voters picking at random or Republicans registering dislike for Cindy Hyde-Smith. In a different state, with a different electorate, he might pick up a few DSA types who don't like the fact that Colom was a prosecutor, but this is not a significant voting bloc in Mississippi. (Having served on a grand jury when Colom was a prosecutor, I believe that his reputation for fairness and reform is fully deserved.)
Fingers crossed! It's going to be a heavy lift because Mississippi has few true swing voters and a lot of people in traditionally Democratic constituencies who don't or can't vote, but statewide elections can be very close. I hope the rest of the South will trend in the same direction as Georgia and Virginia, with college-educated white voters starting to vote like they do elsewhere in the country. That is really all it will take to create several new swing states!
S.I. in Minneapolis, MN, writes: R.L.D. in Sundance writes that (among other things regarding political ads) "Until last night, that is, when I saw a new ad from Chuck Gray. I know he has internal polling, which makes me wonder why he's bothering to spend any money at this stage of the game. Like I said, my advice is not to bet on him losing this election, but I can't imagine why he alone would be spending any new money on this race unless he thinks there's a chance he might lose."
One reason to spend money on an ad at this late date, even when your win is secure, is to let the people who have sent money your way see that it is being used. If Gray wants to keep this seat, there is always a chance of a primary challenge in 2028—and he will be hitting up the same donors from 2026. Most donors like to think they are doing more than paying for the electric bill at Gray's election campaign offices.
J.D. in St. Paul, MN, writes: I know it's a small point in the grand scheme of things, and you cannot get everything right, but the welfare fraud scandal in Minnesota is real and was certainly not "manufactured by Republicans," as you have contended several times. Republicans have taken full political advantage, and the despicable Nick Shirley made a racist video about it, but the hard fact is that scammers in Minnesota audaciously defrauded the government (i.e., the taxpayers) of hundreds of millions of dollars over the course of several years, much of that money is now overseas and unrecoverable, and it happened on the Democrats' watch. Maybe if you're not from Minnesota you don't see how shameful this is. We pride ourselves on honest good government and we expect Democrats, in particular, to deliver it. I'm a lifelong, politically astute Democrat, and even I will vote for Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (DFL) for the open U.S. Senate seat only with great reluctance because the future of the Senate matters nationally. She definitely could lose.
Again, we're doing this every day this week. If readers have a report on local races (Senate, House, etc.), please send them to comments@electoral-vote.com. (Z)