Dem
53
Ties
4
GOP
43
"Candidate qualtiy" cuts both ways. Often Republicans nominate some fringe figure who loses a winnable race. In Florida, Democrats could have nominated Alex Vindman, who had a chance against appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (D-FL) but chose not to. Angie Nixon might do just fine in California, but not in Florida.
A 14-point lead by Peggy Flanagan (DFL-MN) seems very unlikely. It is probably just an outlier. Also the tie in South Carolina. If South Carolina is genuinely in play, then Texas is lost for the Republicans.
| State | Democrat | D % | Republican | R % | Start | End | Pollster |
| Florida | Angie Nixon | 44% | Ashley Moody* | 50% | Oct 19 | Oct 26 | Siena U. |
| Florida | Angie Nixon | 45% | Ashley Moody* | 49% | Oct 25 | Oct 27 | St. Pete Polls |
| Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan | 54% | Michele Tafoya | 40% | Oct 19 | Oct 26 | Siena U. |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper | 54% | Michael Whatley | 40% | Oct 01 | Oct 20 | High Point U. |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown | 47% | Jon Husted* | 44% | Oct 21 | Oct 26 | Suffolk U. |
| South Carolina | Annie Andrews | 48% | Darline Graham | 48% | Oct 19 | Oct 26 | Siena U. |