Dem
53
Ties
4
GOP
43
The Alaska Senate race is complicated, as noted above, but there are also a couple of other complicated races lined up. One is a race against the clock. The government is funded until only Dec. 11, so there has to be a differently abled waterfowl session of Congress after the midterms. In that session, one of three things will happen. First, there could be a continuing resolution funding the government for another month or two, which in Senate-speak is called kicking the can down the road. Second, there could be the famous Christmas omnibus bill, with all kinds of sparkly goodies to bribe members to get on board with it. Third, all attempts could fail and the government could shut down for Christmas. Nobody wants that, especially the voters.
If Democrats take one or both chambers of Congress in the midterms, kicking the can suddenly means that the Democrats will have much more power in drafting the new budget in January or February. This puts a lot of pressure on the Republicans to get the government funded before Dec. 11. This is never easy under the best of conditions and certainly not with a 219R, 214D House with two vacancies. However, the two vacancies, FL-20 (Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick) and TX-23 (Tony Gonzales) will be filled by special elections on Nov. 3. The winners of the special elections to finish the terms of their departed predecessors until Jan. 3, 2027, will be seated as soon as they are certified, probably by the end of November. This will probably give a 220R, 215D House for the rest of the year.
A big problem for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is that with a two-seat margin, he needs almost all of his members to show up and vote to ram a bill through, especially if it is a complicated and controversial bill. But if several dozen Republicans have been defeated for reelection, will those members even show up in December for votes, or will they be busy looking for new jobs? They will still get paid, even if they call in sick, and they don't have to worry about Donald Trump threatening a primary since they will be gone on Jan. 3, 2027, no matter what.
Consequently, in the December session, there could be a Democratic majority because half a dozen or more defeated Republican members didn't feel like showing up. That could lead to a motion to vacate the chair that might succeed. Then, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) could become speaker and insist that the only option is a CR to fund the government through Feb. 28 to let the new Congress deal with it. Donald Trump would go apoplectic if this happened, but it is a possibility that can't be discounted. Even in the best-case scenario for Johnson, herding the cats with a 2-seat margin and dozens of depressed soon-to-be-former members will be the biggest challenge of his lifetime.
On top of this, there is another race bubbling under the surface. After a crushing defeat, Johnson may not want to run for minority leader. He might just decide that life as a backbencher is more enjoyable than being minority leader, always a thankless position in the House. Thankless or not, there are a couple of Republicans who are interested in the job, namely Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Rep. Jim "Gym" Jordan (R-OH). It could be quite a battle because Jordan was a founder of the Freedom Caucus and Scalise isn't even a member. This fight will play out at the same time the House is trying to cobble together a budget to keep the government funded.
Scalise has been the Republicans' #2 for 8 years and raised $24 million for House Republicans. Jordan is a real firebrand, which makes him an icon to the hard liners. If the Republicans are wiped out next week, surviving members may not be inclined to go with someone in the current leadership, which led to the disaster, and might be willing to gamble on real change—that is, Jordan. Some members may want "fresh blood," meaning the 62-year-old Jordan and not the 61-year-old Scalise.
You started reading an item about inside baseball, so... here is some more of it. Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN) (which always amuses V because "emmer" means "pail" in Dutch) is currently the #3 in the Republican hierarchy. He has said no matter the election outcome, he will run for whip, the #2 job in the minority. This will force Scalise to either run for minority leader (and possibly lose to Jordan) or let Jordan have the top position and fight Emmer for the #2 position. The Democrats don't have this problem. If they get the majority, they get an extra leadership position (speaker) so everyone can just move up one step on the ladder.
And remember, all this will be going on while the Republicans are under the gun to pass a budget before the Democrats probably take over on Jan. 3. (V)