Dem
53
Ties
4
GOP
43
We start today with a letter that we got many variants of yesterday. We were aware of the facts contained therein, but that does not mean that we are wrong in writing that the ad is mostly running on right-wing "news" channels.
T.B. in Union City, CA, writes: The "Full of Hate" ad ran during the 8th inning of World Series Game 3 on Fox, at least where I am in the San Francisco Bay Area.
I understand it also ran during one or more Big Ten football games on Fox.
I wrote to both Fox Sports and MLB to complain about how inappropriate (and repulsive) it was to show it during the World Series.
S.N. in Sparks, NV, writes: NV-02 covers most of the northern half of Nevada. The urban centers are Washoe County (Reno and Sparks) and the capital, Carson City. The remaining 11 counties are very rural. The rural counties are heavily Republican and vote at high levels. Washoe County favors Democrats in recent elections, but generally by small margins. Our current representative is Mark Amodei (R), who usually won his elections by 10-20%. Amodei decided not to run for re-election, so this is an open seat.\0x2028
The Democratic candidate is Theresa Benitez-Thompsom (TBT). She has quite a few years of experience in the Nevada Assembly, including years as Majority Leader. Her policies lean progressive, though she has a reputation for listening to many voices. If she can get elected, I think she will be a good match for the district.
The more interesting story is Republican candidate David Flippo from southern Nevada. After failing to win elections there and with NV-02 coming open, Flippo suddenly became a resident of Reno. He has various scandals plaguing him, though. The financial ones probably won't hurt him with Republicans, but falsely suggesting he earned a Bronze Star with valor might. The Bronze Star is legit, the valor part is not. Since Flippo won the June primary over Amodei's preferred candidate, Amodei has refused to meet with Flippo or even take his phone calls. Amodei recently announced that he voted for a third party candidate and explained why in a Mother Jones interview. Whether Amodei will have any impact is unknowable.
In recent week, the district has been added to the Democrats "red to blue" list, accompanied by some money and star power. Trump has attacked TBT on a couple of occasions and even donated around $500,000 to Flippo's campaign from his MAGA, Inc., stash. Odds favor Flippo, given the Republican tilt of the district, but TBT does have a chance.
E.W. in Skaneateles, NY, writes: A few observations on the current election season.
New York Governor's Race: My kids are well aware of Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) and hold a negative view of Bruce Blakeman (R), largely due to the overwhelming volume of pro-Hochul and anti-Blakeman ads appearing on YouTube between Minecraft and Be Amazed videos. While pro-Blakeman ads have been sparse, there has been a flood of mailers labeling everyone from our local county legislator to our Assembly candidate and state Senator as Hochul-loving socialists.
One particularly misleading mailer claimed that our Assembly candidate, Ian Phillips (D), supported "taking away grocery coupons, promotions, and discounts." In reality, the One Fair Wage/Price legislation aims to ban surveillance pricing—the practice of using personal data, browsing history, or location to charge different prices for the exact same product—while explicitly preserving broad-based discounts like loyalty programs, coupons, and senior or veteran pricing. What chutzpah!
Attorney General: I occasionally see mobile ads and yard signs for AG Letitia James (D). However, I have seen zero outreach from her challenger, Saritha Komatireddy (R), whose name I had to look up despite having already cast my vote early for James.
NY-22: My newly redistricted congressional district (NY-22) has become relatively non-competitive, but we still see frequent online ads (mostly on YouTube) for Rep. John Mannion (D) alongside numerous Mannion yard signs. His opponent, Kailee Buller (R), remains relatively unknown; I only see yard signs for her and no digital ads.
SD-48 and SD-50: Although I live in SD-48, I constantly receive mobile phone ads for state Sen. Chris Ryan (D) in SD-50, likely because I frequently travel to that district for work and errands. Interestingly, Ryan's ads are often immediately followed by ads for his challenger, James Corl (R). Both campaigns are wasting money microtargeting me outside their district—it is 2026, and political ad targeting should be far more precise by now.
C.C. in Dallas, TX, writes: A neighbor is a former member of the county Republican Committee so they always have signs out. This year, the only ones by the street are opposing a bond package. They have a Ken Paxton (R) sign up because... well, they literally have to, but it's set back in the trees close to the house and almost unnoticeable. As has been noted in other submissions, Republican voters are keeping a very low profile this time around. I absolutely expect them to get out and vote in force, with few actually ticket splitting. What will be interesting is the total vote count for Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and the total for Paxton to see what proportion just abstain from the Senate election. If enough go with the argument that any (R) is better than any (D), then Texas will not be a Democratic pickup.
K.F.K. in Cle Elum, WA, writes: Just saw this post from a friend in Minnesota:
When Michelle Tafoya talks about Peggy Flanagan's net worth, remember: When Tafoya said Americans could handle higher gas prices caused by the war in Iran with a "stiff upper lip" and "one less trip to Starbucks," she likely wasn't talking about herself.
The retired sportscaster and Republican candidate for U.S. Senate has assets worth between $10.7 million and $37.9 million, according to her financial disclosure, putting her near or in the top 1% of wealthiest Americans.The posting got this response: "Friends of mine rented a townhouse from Tafoya years ago. She illegally withheld their deposit and they had to sue her to get their money back. She was nasty and deceitful. Not character traits Minnesota needs in their representatives."
I'm rooting for Peggy, even though I don't live there anymore.
S.A.K. in Karnataka, India, writes: L.B. in Canby wondered why Donald Trump would campaign in an obscure town in the corner of Michigan. I have been very interested in Michigan's U.S. Senate race this year, so naturally I too had been thinking about this rally since Monday. The analysis threw up some interesting stuff. Turns out Mike Rogers (R) ran behind Trump in all 74 counties that the latter won in Michigan in 2024. Guess which county had the widest margin? St. Clair, home to Port Huron. A margin of 4,265 votes, to be precise. Fifteen of those counties saw a margin of at least 1,000 votes. Across those 74 counties, Rogers was behind Trump by 56,768 votes.
Still, with Trump rallying his base, there is a big task ahead of Abdul El-Sayed. Not to mention the bald-faced Islamophobia being bandied about not just by Trump and the Republicans, but also by a small but vocal minority of "centrist" Democrats. That the mainstream media all but gives it a free pass is reprehensible. He also has to contend with polls like these, where more than a third of the electorate are self-confessed bigots. Add to this mix figures like Rep. Hillary Scholten (D) and a Jasmine Crockett-lite Rep. Haley Stevens (D), and you have an Everest-sized challenge.
For the record, I believe El-Sayed will lose by about a point.
D.M. in Madeira, OH, writes: My wife and I went with our four adult children to vote early in Hamilton County, OH (Cincinnati), this week. Shhh... don't tell the Republicans, we snuck in a 17-year-old to vote! (He will turn 18 later this week, before Election Day, so is eligible.)
Although like all of Ohio, Hamilton County has only one early voting place, they actually moved it out of Downtown Cincinnati a few years ago into a suburb in the middle of the county, and it's very easy to get to, and they run an efficient machine. Although it was crowded, we didn't have to wait in line and were in and out in maybe 20 minutes.
I always appreciate how much the Board of Elections makes a big deal out of first-time voters. The poll worker was very patient and thorough in explaining the process to my first-time-voter son, and they have a big bell for first time voters to ring and everyone stops and cheers.
We live in the part of eastern Hamilton County that was gerrymandered by the Republicans into OH-08 to try and take down Greg Landsman from OH-01 (we were in OH-01 in 2024). That plan failed, but I don't expect the blue wave to be big enough to power Vanessa Enoch to victory in OH-08.
With 6 registered voters in the house, we get a LOT of mailers. We get some addressed jointly to my son and daughter, who don't appreciate the insinuation that they are married. My older son has gotten two out-of-state handwritten postcards encouraging him to vote.
Thankfully we do not watch much TV, but we will be grateful for election advertisement season to be over. It reminds me of the "good old days" (2012) when Ohio was a swing state.
D.B in Baltimore, MD, writes: I live in sapphire-blue northern Baltimore. I early voted this week at the nearest location to my apartment (about a 1.5 miles away). I've early voted there in the past, including the general election in 2024, and always breezed in and out very quickly. Maryland has a very uncompetitive governor's race and really nothing else of any significance this year (the most exciting part of the ballot for me was voting yes on B.I. 3, which allows redistricting). I went around 10:30 am on Tuesday, figuring that this would be one of the slowest times. I was genuinely surprised by how many people were there. Normally, poll workers outnumber voters two- or even three-to-one. But the place was buzzing and I even had to wait in line. It made me very excited. It also made me feel very lucky after reading the letter from N.K.in Cleveland Heights about only having a single early polling location in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland). Just the city of Baltimore alone has 9 early voting locations. What a difference a state legislature makes.
More tomorrow. If readers have reports, send them to comments@electoral-vote.com. (Z)