Dem
53
Ties
3
GOP
44
Our script that double checks polling numbers is confused and frightened by that WaPo poll of Kansas. The warning it gives us right now is "Warning for KS. Republican is ahead by only -10 points." And yet, the numbers are correct. Further, the pollster that WaPo used is a good one—George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government. We're not doing much better than the script is when it comes to accepting that the Democrat is up 10 in Kansas, of all places. But Adam Hamilton is up in the other poll, too, and Emerson tends to skew pro-Republican. There's simply no avoiding the conclusion that the Sunflower State might well be on the cusp of sending a Democrat to the Senate for the first time in 96 years. (Z)
| State | Democrat | D % | Republican | R % | Start | End | Pollster |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola | 51% | Dan Sullivan* | 49% | Oct 26 | Oct 29 | AK Survey Research |
| Illinois | Juliana Stratton | 56% | Don Tracy | 44% | Oct 21 | Oct 30 | Activote |
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton | 50% | Roger Marshall | 47% | Oct 26 | Oct 28 | Emerson Coll. |
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton | 54% | Roger Marshall | 44% | Oct 22 | Oct 26 | Washington Post |
| Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan | 48% | Michele Tafoya | 41% | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | SurveyUSA |
| South Dakota | No Democrat | 0% | Mike Rounds* | 41% | Oct 22 | Oct 26 | Concord POP |