Dem
53
Ties
3
GOP
44
There are a bunch of national news stories worth a mention, most of which will be obsolete once the election happens. In other words, it's now or never. So, away we go:
Rally Monkey: Donald Trump was scheduled to perform two of his rallies his weekend, in Kansas and Iowa. Then he called them off and said he would do 20 tele-rallies instead, so as to spread the Trumpy goodness around much more widely. Then, after there were a lot of questions about the reasons for the late cancellation, the White House said the in-person rallies were back on, and that the tele-rallies would also happen.
Our Take: There are a number of possible ways to explain this, but we think the correct one is that he's a tired old man who is worn out from campaigning. On an airport tarmac yesterday, a reporter—Reuters White House correspondent Jacob Bogage—asked Trump if the cancellations were for health reasons, and Trump nearly tore the reporter's head off. That attack felt an awful lot like a confession, because that's how Trump rolls: The closer to the truth you get, the pissier he gets. We suspect a secondary issue is that he's struggling to fill up venues these days, and even more pictures of empty seats, right before an election, is not a great look. That said, flaking out was not a good look either, and made it seem as if he'd given up on the Kansan (Sen. Roger Marshall) and Iowan (Rep. Ashley Hinson) who are locked in tough Senate races right now.
Rally Monkey, Redux: Trump was so aggravated by Bogage that, when he got back to the White House, he got on his social media platform for haters, and posted an image/meme of the reporter that also includes the caption "Put yourself in shape. You look like hell!!"
Our Take: Pretty rich for a wide load like Trump, whose hair looks like a bird nest, and whose skin looks like a tangerine, to indulge in body shaming. In any event, we will observe that, once again, he becomes much more cranky when he knows or suspects bad news (like, say, an electoral disaster) is coming. Also, at risk of being conspiratorial, is there a native English speaker who would write "Put yourself in shape," as opposed to "Get yourself in shape"? Wethinks Trump may have reposted a meme cranked out by a Russian troll farm.
Cue the Video, Part I: As long as we are on the subject of Trump rallies, a woman in Mississippi took the transcript from his rally in that state, and read it verbatim (with a flat affect and vacant eyes, but verbatim nonetheless). Here is the video, which is well worth a look:
Our Take: This was sent to us by reader R.V. in Pittsburgh, PA, who noted: "If most people had a relative talking like this, they'd tell them to see a neurologist." We have nothing to add.
Hindsight Is 20/20: Zeteo has a very interesting breakdown of the process by with the Vivek Ramaswamy (R) campaign created that vile Amy Acton (D) ad in its efforts to win the Ohio governorship. The three most notable takeaways: (1) Many people close to Ramaswamy urged him not to use the ad; (2) Amy Acton's mother was not only paid, but told what to say, and may not have been mentally competent enough to consent to the ad; and (3) the Zeteo story has much to say about the role of Ben Yoho, one of Ramaswamy's two key advisors, in creating and advocating for the ad, while it says nothing about the culpability of Jai Chabria, Ramaswamy's other key advisor. Not too hard to figure out who the "unnamed source" for the item might have been.
Our Take: Not only is hindsight 20/20, but sometimes foresight is, too. The only kind of person who would be influenced by an ad like this is a vile creature like... well, Vivek Ramaswamy. He should have taken the advice of people who have at least a bit more empathy than he does. However, he also has a Trump-level case of "I know better than everyone else," so that was not going to happen. There's only been one quality poll of the race since the ad dropped, from USA Today/Suffolk. It has the race at 48% for Acton, 44% for Ramaswamy, which is precisely the same as their poll one month ago had it. However, Ramaswamy's unfavorable rating jumped 2 points relative to the previous poll, from 52% to 54%. So, the tentative conclusion, but one obviously based on too little data to be confident, is that the ad did not help, and may have hurt a bit.
Dead Man Walking?, Part I: Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) is trying to knock off Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ). And Turning Point USA, the group that was founded by the late Charlie Kirk, ias doing everything they can to help, spending a staggering $18 million on the Biggs campaign. They are all-in because they are based in Arizona, and because Biggs was the last person Kirk endorsed before his death. None of it is helping much; Hobbs has led by 5 or more in each of the eight polls of the race conducted this month.
Our Take: Turning Point, sans Kirk, wants to position itself as a key player/kingmaker in Republican politics, along the lines of the Heritage Foundation. If the organization can't even get Biggs across the finish line (or, for that matter, even close to the finish line) in its home state, and with such a massive outlay, then it will be hard to take them seriously going forward.
Dead Man Walking?, Part II: Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) made a lot of the wrong kind of headlines this year, when he effectively abandoned his constituents for 4 months, refusing to explain the problem (he later said he was being treated for depression). Given the environment and the fact that his district is EVEN, Kean was going to have a tough reelection battle. But the abandonment looks to have been a fatal blow; the Congressional Leadership Fund (House Republican PAC) has pulled its money and told Kean he is on his own.
Our Take: It is a shame that Kean felt he could not be honest about his mental health struggles. That said, politics ain't beanbag, and he should have found a better way to deal with his absence, beyond near-total radio silence. He could have been honest from the beginning (since he ultimately revealed the truth, anyhow). Or, he could have come up with an alternative explanation. But behaving as if his constituents—a.k.a. his bosses—had no right to know was the wrong call.
Carolina on My Mind, Part I: Speaking of spending by the party PACs, Senate Majority PAC (Senate Democratic PAC) has just committed to spending $750,000 in South Carolina, to support the candidacy of Annie Andrews (D).
Our Take: The Democrats' money is spread thin right now, in part because they have so many promising races to potentially invest in. Sometimes, a party will spend money on a race just to trick the other party into following suit. It is improbable that, under current circumstances, the blue team has the cash for gameswomanship like that. So, we conclude that the Democratic pooh-bahs have polling that says that this race is winnable, and that the public polls therefore are not off the mark.
Carolina on My Mind, Part II: We don't know if the two events are directly related, but as long as we're talking about the Democrats' new spending in South Carolina, we'll also pass along the news that former South Carolina governors, David Beasley (R) and Jim Hodges (D), released a video this week in which they jointly endorsed Democrat Annie Andrews. Beasley is a Never Trump Republican and Hodges is a conservative Democrat. They said they are endorsing Andrews because they are tired of the divisiveness that has gripped the country, and they think she can help heal that.
Our Take: They're not wrong about that. There is no reason to believe that Republican Darline Graham is a bomb-thrower. But if the country is going to be less partisan, it's going to require electing some meaningful number of centrists. Some Republicans will have to get used to being represented by a Democrat. And some Democrats will have to get used to Democratic senators who can't and won't follow the party line all the time.
Cue the Video, Part II: Pete Buttigieg, who is campaigning for Democrats across the country (but particularly for candidates in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada for some... unknown reason), has just released a new ad:
It's not funny or dramatic, but it is fairly brilliant. It shows Buttigieg eating at a Waffle House, and ordering a pretty basic breakfast combo, which comes with a $17.50 price tag before tax and tip. As he eats, he goes through each item on his plate, and explains how Donald Trump's policies have served to make that item more expensive.
Our Take: We got the heads-up here from B.J.L. in Ann Arbor, MI, who added "This is my favorite ad of this cycle. Nothing crazy, no dark voice or music." The ad is not for everyone, but it IS a reminder that Buttigieg is a gifted communicator, and could well be a force in the 2028 or 2032 or 2036 presidential races.
Trump's a Bigot...: One more Trump rally item. It's not a secret anymore that the President is a bigot, though as he gets older, and more mentally infirm, and more defensive, and even more confident he can get away with it, he's not even bothering to hide it (or semi-hide it, in the form of a dog whistle). At a rally on Friday, Trump decreed:
[Abdul El-Sayed] doesn't like Jewish people and he doesn't like Black people. I'm talking about Abdul. Abdul is not a big fan of Jewish people, and he's not a big fan of Black people. And I hope you're going to vote against him and send him back to where he came from.Trump later said that any Jew who votes for El-Sayed is "stupid." Incidentally, El-Sayed was born in Rochester Hills, MI. So, "sending him back to where he came from" means sending him to... Rochester Hills, MI.
Our Take: It is clear that a lot of Jewish Democrats in Michigan are having a hard time with their votes in this election. Everyone knows the famous poem "First They Came" by Martin Niemöller. We very seriously doubt that Trump's obvious pandering to Islamophobia, and his attempt to "other" an American citizen, will win over many Jewish and/or Black votes. We wonder, however, if it will push some reluctant votes into the El-Sayed column, from people who conclude that if you reward xenophobia against Muslims, it's a short trip from there to antisemitism and/or anti-Black racism.
...and So Is RFK Jr.: We thought that RFK Jr. was just an anti-science kook. Turns out he's a bigot, too. Who knew? He was appearing at an event in Michigan in support of Mike Rogers (R), and declared: "There are 500 million Arabs in the world. and yet they don't produce science, they don't win the Nobel Prize, they don't win the Fields prize [sic; it's the Fields Medal], they don't win the Wolf Prize, they don't produce literature." It might be expected that prizes awarded primarily by white Westerners would go primarily to white Westeners, so this might not be a fair test. But beyond that, we have another case where Kennedy's "facts" are not correct. There are plenty of Arab Nobel laureates; the most famous is probably Anwar Sadat, while the most recent is Omar Yaghi, who won for Chemistry... last year. Yaghi also has a Wolf Prize. Naguib Mahfouz of Egypt won the Nobel for Literature in 1988, and if you want something more recent, the reigning winners of the National Book Award are Rabih Alameddine (Lebanon, for fiction) and Omar El Akkad (Egypt/U.S., non-fiction).
Our Take: Is Bobby Jr. trying to please the boss? Is he making a play for MAGA, with the idea that he can run for president in 2028? Is he just revealing the truth about what kind of man he is? Could be any or all. But his father, famous for giving a very empathetic speech the night Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated, must be spinning in his grave.
Roamin' Catholics, Part I: Last week, a group of 12 Catholic bishops visited the Oval Office. They prayed over Donald Trump, who bowed his head and pretended to join in. The White House then widely circulated a photo of the moment, obviously implying that he has the endorsement and support of the bishops. The bishops were angry at being used in this way (or, at least, they pretended to be angry), and declared that they were not taking a partisan stance, and would pray over any president, so as to "instill our leaders with wisdom and also to help them remain humble."
Our Take: Someone screwed up here, and it is... the bishops. At best, they allowed the photo to be taken, and should not have been so naive as to think the White House wouldn't make use of it. At worst, they are being disingenuous, and found a backdoor way to endorse Trump. Further, anyone who prays for Trump to be humble is fooling themselves. There are some things that even God can't do.
Roamin' Catholics, Part II: Robert Prevost, a.k.a. Leo XIV, might be the pope, but he's also an American citizen and he's entitled to vote by absentee ballot. He did so this week, reportedly becoming the first pope to cast a ballot in a democratic election.
Our Take: Unlike the 12 bishops, Leo is savvy enough to keep this nonpartisan, declaring that his message is "his belief in the right and the duty of citizens to participate in democratic processes." That said, we have a pretty good guess as to which party he favored.
Man of the Century: At yet another one of his rallies, Donald Trump was presented with a certificate declaring him to be "Man of the Century" by Republican Joe Mitchell, who is running in IA-02. Trump glowed, and clutched the award like an 11-year-old who finally got that pony on Christmas morning.
Our Take: It's like a Saturday Night Live sketch; the awards just get more and more absurd. Does Trump really think they mean something? Or does he just have to act pleased, because there's no great alternative? We honestly don't know.
High T: The manly men who work for Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth were moving some furniture around, and did not want to wait for the specialist movers who had been hired to handle some of the more delicate objects. So, they decided to move a 40-inch globe that once belonged to Dwight D. Eisenhower, and that he reportedly used to help plan the D-Day invasion, by themselves. They dropped it, of course, and damaged it badly—probably beyond repair.
Our Take: If there is a stronger contender for Metaphor of the Year, we don't know what it might be.
Cue the Video, Part III: And finally, a little dessert to finish this off. At a Trump rally in South Carolina, a Fox reporter grabbed what he thought was a MAGA supporter for a live comment, to ask why the man was in attendance. It did not go well:
You'll have to watch the clip, which is only 27 seconds, to see what the man said. But we'll tell you that the Fox reporter's conclusion was, "Uh, maybe this is not a Trump supporter."
Our Take: We're not surprised that the most salient political analysis we've ever seen on Fox came from a random guy pulled from the crowd.
We told you there was a lot. (Z & A)