Dem
53
Ties
1
GOP
46
There was actually one other interesting election result last night, though it was not in Massachusetts, and it's not going to make too many headlines. Independence, MO, is most famous as the hometown of Harry S. Truman, but recently, it's been a subject of interest for a different reason. Nebius wanted to build a data center there, and after much bitter debate, the city council voted 5-4 to approve the plan, along with some generous tax rebates for Nebius. Voters there were not happy, and the two members among the five "yea" votes who were up for reelection this year were both sent packing in the primaries. That wasn't quite enough, however, as the town's voters mounted a recall effort for the third of the five (no, not Hugh; he was Third OF Five). The target was Councilman John Perkins, and yesterday he was tossed out on his ear, by 68% of the voters. Sorry, John.
How about some more evidence that data centers have become increasingly toxic (metaphorically)? Ok. There have been a couple of instructive polls on the question in the last week or so. The first of those is from Politico, and it reports that 41% of respondents would oppose a data center being built within 3 miles of their house, as compared to 24% who would support it. We are approaching 2-to-1-against territory, which is not good news for data-center builders and the politicians who support them. Even worse, Politico also asked this question in January, and back then it was 37% support and 28% oppose. In other words, in the same poll, data centers went from a net of +9 in support to a net of -17, for a shift of -26 in just over 6 months. That is known as "going in the wrong direction," at least if you're in the data-center business.
The other poll is from the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, and it has similar results to the Politico poll, with 46% of respondents opposing data centers and just 26% supporting. And this poll also has some additional context. The pollster asked about other kinds of projects, and they all did better than the data centers. People very much like new housing (58% for, vs. 15% against), new roads and highways (48% vs. 18%) and, interestingly, new solar farms (47% vs. 22%) and wind farms (43% vs. 22%). In fact, every type of project the pollster asked about had net positive support, except for the data centers and their net -20.
More proof? Happy to oblige. Among the people who read polls are politicians, and they can very clearly see the writing that is currently on the wall. For example, back in November of last year, Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) issued a press release celebrating a deal he'd made with Google to invest $40 billion in data centers in Texas. Last week, on the other hand, Abbott ordered an "immediate" pause on data center approval. That might mean "a pause until after the elections," or "a pause until we can figure some things out" or even "a temporary pause that will become permanent." We don't know which it is, although we doubt it is the third one.
Similarly, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) issued a memo last week in which it warned interested parties that the Ohio U.S. Senate race has become all about AI and data centers, and that the seat may be slipping away as a result. Not only would the loss of the seat be disastrous, the memo warns, but "If [Sen. Jon Husted, R-OH] loses and data centers get the blame, politicians across the country will take notice—and they will not go near the next one." The memo also observes that "This has become a sleeper issue for the entire election cycle."
Although the purpose of that memo is to rally all hands on deck, and to get the AI companies to pony up big-time to save Husted, we think that the (NRSC) is right that this is just going to get worse for the AI companies and their supporters. The primary issues right now are that data centers kill jobs (this is the main theme of the Ohio Senate race) and that they suck up lots of water and electricity. However, it's clear a reckoning is coming in terms of their propensity to pollute. It's not as obvious as those Gilded Age-style smokestacks with their billowy, black smoke, but the data centers do put out vast amounts of carbon. and they also produce cancer-causing PFAS. In other words, the data centers aren't just metaphorically toxic, they are also literally toxic. Anti-data-center politicians have noticed this, and have begun harping on it. As people become more aware, it is not going to improve those poll numbers above.
There is, of course, one fellow who is still all aboard the data center train. That would be one Donald J. Trump, President of the United States of America. We do not know what his motivation is. Maybe there's a grift angle (there usually is, when this kind of money is involved). Maybe he thinks the data centers will be a monument to him and his presidency. Maybe he somehow thinks that data-center deals will somehow insta-fix what's wrong with the economy and with his approval numbers, the way that a vague deal for Venezuelan oil supposedly will. Could be all of these things. We just don't know.
What we do know is that Trump's not even willing to wait until the midterms are over, when it will be harder for voters to punish pro-data-center politicians. So, Trump has gone all-in on whipping support, and trying to make this into a MAGA-loyalty-test issue. For example, he sent this tweet on his pro-toxicity (all forms) social media platform:
The only reason that communities throughout the U.S.A. should not want Data Centers is if they want to end up being backwards and poor. If they want to be successful and rich, with far lower taxes and jobs all over the place, let Data Reign. The good news is that there are plenty of other places that want them. If we kill the Golden Goose, you will only have yourselves to blame. China could not be happier with this anti Data Center movement. Actually, they can't believe it is happening! President DJT
He's since done a few interviews where he reiterated this point.
By and large, Trump's efforts to impose this on Republicans will not work. They've played along for a long time, but his power is clearly waning, and they're also not interested in political suicide missions. Indeed, the pushback has already begun; to take one example, among several, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-TN) was asked about Trump's message, and he (lightly) mocked the President, saying, "I guess I'm backwards and poor."
The problem Republicans have is that the Democrats have taken this issue and run with it, and are wielding it as a club, the way Sherrod Brown is in Ohio. And it is really, really hard for the members of a political party to disclaim an issue effectively if the sitting president from that party keeps trumpeting that issue. So, the GOP really, really needs to get Trump to shut up about this, and to stop sending tweets like that. If they can't do it (and, let's be honest, they probably can't), then this is yet another way that he might cost the Republicans control of the Senate. (Z)