Dem
53
Ties
1
GOP
46
No surprise in New Mexico, it is well and truly a blue state now. Slight surprise in Michigan; the Republicans are trying to make Abdul El-Sayed Public Boogeyman #1, and today's polls suggest it's not working very well.
Take a good look at today's map. It is probably the maximal best map for the Democrats. It shows them flipping Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. But we haven't even hit Labor Day and the hundreds of millions of dollars of dark and super PAC money that will flow afterwards. If you want to do a thought exercise about "what is the next easiest state for the Democrats to flip?", the tipping-point state table is the place to look. The next easiest state for the Democrats can be found be reading down from the top and it is the first one that is not blue. Today it is Mississippi, where Scott Colom is only 3 points behind Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. Mississippi has the largest percentage of Blacks of any state (38%). Colom is Black and Hyde-Smith is white. To see which state is easiest for the Republicans to pick off, read the table from the bottom upward and it is the first blue state, Iowa today. The hands indicate what is needed for the majority. For example, the Democrats could lose Texas and Iowa and still hit 51. (Z)
| State | Democrat | D % | Republican | R % | Start | End | Pollster |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed | 49% | Mike Rogers | 45% | Aug 26 | Aug 28 | Abacus Data |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed | 50% | Mike Rogers | 45% | Aug 10 | Aug 20 | YouGov |
| New Mexico | Ben Ray Lujan* | 53% | Larry Marker | 38% | Aug 21 | Aug 28 | Research and Polling |