Sep.03

electoral-vote.com

Dem 52

Ties 2

GOP 46

More on Mail-in Ballots

Yesterday, we noted that (V) and (Z) independently came to the conclusion that the Venezuela oil deal will fizzle and will almost certainly not make a noticeable change in gas prices soon and probably never—several days before the rest of the media world figured this out, too. We try to be fair and balanced, so how about an item where (V) and (Z) are a little further apart?

(Z) wrote an item about the midterms suggesting that the administration's incompetence would save the day for democracy, in part because the lower courts are upholding the rule of law. (V) is a little less sure of Trump and his minions obeying the courts and is a big fan of a remark often ascribed to Thomas Jefferson "Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty." But whether it was Jefferson or someone else, it was never more true than now.

Voting by mail is not new. It was used before the Civil War. But Donald Trump thinks it helps Democrats and is doing everything he can to block it, even though he votes by mail and some Republicans think mail-in voting is actually a net plus for Republicans, the party of older and rural voters. The latest skirmish in the voting wars is Donald Trump's XO ordering the USPS to refuse to deliver absentee ballots unless the voter is in a federal database that isn't even ready yet and which could not possibly constructed before early voting starts this month. Having the president order the USPS to reject properly franked mail that meets all USPS size, weight, and content requirements is unpresidented and almost certainly illegal.

Bolts Magazine asked readers to send in questions about this and now has published some answers. Considering the salience of the issue, here are the questions and summaries of the answers.

• What are the new USPS policies?: One new policy is not postmarking mail the day it is deposited in a mailbox. It may first be shipped to a facility hundreds of miles away and postmarked there. This matters for voters who mail in their ballot on Election Day, only to have it postmarked after Election Day and then rejected. This is a real possibility, especially in rural areas. In the Aug. 4, 2026, primary in Washington State, 5% of the ballots in Yakima County were rejected due to late postmarks (up from 1% in 2024).
  
  A second change is due to the XO. A new USPS rule says the service will deliver ballots only to people on the federal list of approved voters. All the blue states have refused to share the voter lists with the feds. Given the complexity of this and the ever-changing voter lists, it is inconceivable that the federal lists would be complete and up to date. The feds will need substantial time to process the lists, which means voters who register after the lists are sent will not be on them, even if the registration is legal under state law.
  
  
• Are the new rules legal?: Almost certainly not. Leah Aden of the NAACP legal defense fund said "Federal statutes governing the USPS do not permit the agency to pick and choose who can vote by mail." State law determines that. There have been two lawsuits so far, and while the rule has been blocked for the moment, U.S. District Judge Indira Talwani is holding a hearing on them today. Once early voting starts, in some states in 2 weeks, the legality of one set of rules for some states and a different set for other states will be contested.
  
  
• Are the new rules feasible?: Elections experts say the XO is illegal and many say even if the Supreme Court upheld it today, it couldn't possibly be implemented on time. Such a complex system would need months of trials and tests to make sure it worked correctly. Just to name one small point, every state, sometimes every county, maintains its data in whatever format it wants. Converting this to some standardized federal format would take weeks, maybe months, with many corner cases. Suppose the federal format for a name is John L. Smith but a state has a John L. Smith, a John L. Smith Jr. and a John L. Smith III but the federal format doesn't recognize suffixes. Or someone's name is Abdulrahman M. El-Sayed and the federal format doesn't allow hyphens in names. There is a long list of things that could go wrong.
  
  
• What can voters do now?: As to the postmark, either mail in the ballot a week in advance or request a postmark on the spot at a post office. As to the XO, voting early in person might be the best defense. At the very least, keep informed of developments in the cases.
  
  
• What if you live overseas?: A federal law created a thing called a Federal Write-In Absentee Ballot (FWAB) that may be applicable in some cases. It can be mailed in before the absentee ballot is received. In some states it can be faxed or e-mailed in.
  
  
• Who can even get a mail ballot?: It varies by state. There are three categories of states: (1) all-mail-in states, (2) no-excuse states, and (3) excuse-only states. There are eight all-mail-in states, 29 no-excuse states, and 13 excuse-only states, mostly in the South. The acceptable excuses vary by state and may include disabilities, being out of state on Election Day, and other reasons.
  
  
• What could states do in response?: States have no control over the USPS. Given enough time to plan for it, states could contract ballot delivery out to UPS, FedEx, or other delivery services. They could allow people to pick up their ballots in advance at their leisure. But these plans could not be done in 2026. Maybe in 2028, though. States do have some control over the returned ballots. Some state election officials go to the local post office every day to pick up returned ballots, eliminating one kind of delay. Many states have drop boxes or locations where ballots can be returned, completely bypassing the USPS.
  
  
• Do states with an all-mail voting system have a plan B?: These states do operate polling places where ballots can be brought. They could be remodeled as polling places, but not at the last minute. They could use private carriers, but again not at the last minute. This problem keeps election officials awake at 3 a.m.
  
  
• Can you print out your ballot at home?: California allows this. So does King County, WA. Other counties could also investigate it if the USPS became a bottleneck. Scanning the home-printed ballots accurately would be a bigger problem than with official ballots on heavy cardstock. New scanners might be needed. The security aspects would have to be worked out, but the combination of print-your-own-ballot and bring-your-ballot-to-a-dropbox would get the USPS out of the loop altogether;
  
  
• What is the justification of for these changes?: Donald Trump claims illegal aliens are voting in great numbers, but this is simply a lie. The reality is that he thinks Democrats use mail-in voting more than Republicans and that by banning the practice, it will disenfranchise more Democrats than Republicans. What he misses, though, is that Democrats tend to live in cities and could vote in person if forced to. Elderly rural Republicans far from the county seat might simply not be able to vote, especially if they lack transportation.

This story is far from over and may well run into 2028. If Democrats capture both chambers of Congress, they could put something in a must-pass bill about this—for example, banning this kind of monkey business by law. (V)