Sep.07

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

Ties 3

GOP 46

Two More Primaries This Week

New Hampshire is tenacious when it comes to having the first presidential primary, but doesn't seem to mind being third from last in midterm primaries. The Granite State holds its primary tomorrow, followed by The Ocean State (Rhode Island) Wednesday. Next Tuesday, the First State (Delaware) is the Last State and finishes the primary season.

New Hampshire has multiple elections this year. Let's take a look:

• Senate: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) is retiring, so this is an open seat. Five Democrats have filed, including Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH), who represents the eastern part of the state (Manchester, Portsmouth, Laconia). None of the others have ever held elective office and they are presumably just running on a lark. Pappas is widely expected to get the nomination.
  
  On the Republican side, it is even wilder and woolier. Eight people have filed, three of them have held elective office. John Sununu actually held the seat from 2003 to 2009. In 2008, he was nominated for reelection and lost to Shaheen. He is trying for a comeback. Scott Brown is also a former senator—from Massachusetts. During Trump 1.0, the president apparently wanted to get rid of him, so he sent Brown far away to be ambassador to New Zealand and Samoa. At least now Brown can claim some foreign policy experience. Tom Alciere is a former state representative (2000-2001), but has become a perennial candidate and has little chance. None of the others are serious. So it is the battle of the two former senators. All things considered, since this is New Hampshire, the guy who was a New Hampshire senator is surely the favorite over a guy who was a Massachusetts senator. Sununu raised $3.7 million but still has $2.7 million in the bank. He is pretty sure of the nomination and saving his pennies nickels for the general election. Polls also have Sununu ahead by about 35 points, so his decision makes sense.
  
  
• House: Pappas' district is open, of course, and eight Democrats have filed for the nomination. Winning the general election is not a sure thing, since NH-01 is D+2. One interesting candidate is Stefany Shaheen. If that name sounds vaguely familiar, it is because Stefany is the daughter of the retiring senator. She has many endorsements, including Sens. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) and Mark Kelly (D-AZ), and many unions. Another candidate is Maura Sullivan, a former Obama official and vice chair of the New Hampshire Democratic party. She also has some high-powered endorsements, including Govs. Mikie Sherill (D-NJ) and Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) and a bunch of state legislators. In terms of money, Sullivan has raised somewhat more than Shaheen and is somewhat ahead in the polls, but this is probably the most competitive race in New Hampshire tomorrow.
  
  In NH-02, Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-NH) is running for a second term. She is being challenged by progressive state Rep. Paige Beauchemin (D), who is a nurse. This is another of those progressive vs. moderate races. It is like the Massachusetts Senate primary, except it is not. That one was a young moderate against an old progressive incumbent. This one is an older (47) progressive against a young (39) moderate incumbent. There are so many combinations here, it is hard to keep track. Despite the Democrats' desire for generational change, in Massachusetts the old progressive guy won. On Wednesday, we'll see how that works next door.
  
  
• Governor: Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) wants another 2-year term. She has two primary challengers, Shaun Fife and Robert McClory, but she will win the primary easily. On the Democratic side there is no action at all. The only candidate is New Hampshire Executive Council member Cinde Warmington. The general election between Ayotte and Warmington could be interesting. Ayotte is an incumbent and much better known, but New Hampshire is a bluish state and in a blue wave, Warmington could possibly win. That said, New England states have a habit of electing moderate Republican governors (like Ayotte) from time to time. The most recent poll has Ayotte ahead 49% to 39%, so she is definitely the favorite and a Warmington win would be a big upset.

Now on to Rhode Island, a very boring state electorally.

• Senate: Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), a West Point and Harvard graduate, is running for reelection. He keeps his head down, focuses on constituent services and is very popular. An elder care worker, Connor Burbridge, and a perennial candidate, Luis Muñoz, filed but Reed doesn't even have to campaign against them. The only Republican who filed is Raymond McKay, a former member of the state GOP party committee and Senate candidate in 2024. He has raised $163,000 vs. Reed's $4.2 million. Needless to say, Reed will swamp McKay in November, probably by around the 33-point margin he got in 2020.
  
  
• House: In RI-01—the eastern part of the state, including Pawtucket, Newport, and much of Providence—Rep. Gabe Amo (D-RI) is running for a third term. He is unopposed in the primary and will easily defeat businesswoman Kellie Keenan, the only Republican to file, in November. Amo won by 31 points in 2024 and will win by a similar margin in 2026.
  
  In RI-02—the western part of the state including Cranston, Warwick, and a bit of Providence—Seth Magaziner (D) is also running for a third term (unopposed in the primary). He'll get it. The Republicans also have a contest, of sorts. Physician Stephen Skoly is running against registered foreign agent for Cuba Victor Mellor. Former NSA Michael Flynn has endorsed Mellor, who is Flynn's self-described chief of staff. You can't make this stuff up. Mellor has raised $606,000 to Skoly's $108,000, but polling is close. It hardly matters, though. Magaziner won by 16 points in 2024 and will likely win by a bigger margin in 2026.
  
  
• Governor: Gov. Dan McKee (D-RI) is running for reelection, but he isn't all that popular. He is being challenged in the primary by Helena Foulkes (62), who is the granddaughter of a former senator and niece of another former senator and an ambassador (her mother is a Dodd). She had a long career as a business executive at Goldman Sachs, Tiffany, CVS and Hudson's Bay. She was also president of the Harvard Board of Overseers. A young progressive she is not, but because McKee is rather unpopular, she has an excellent chance to beat him in the primary. Recent polls have her ahead of McKee by 15-38 points. The Republicans have a primary between former chairman of the Warwick Sewer Authority Aaron Guckian and actress Elaine Pelino. It won't matter.

What it amounts to is that primary season is ending on something of a whimper. We'll preview Delaware next week, because that is what we do, but—spoiler alert—it isn't going to be any more interesting than this pair. (Z)