Dem
51
Ties
3
GOP
46
The leaders of Iran might yearn to go back to the 7th century, but their political instincts are definitely 21st century. They clearly want to hurt Donald Trump and fully understand that causing him pain in the midterms is a fine way to do it. As a consequence, they are renewing their attacks on Gulf Arab countries that are U.S. allies, causing those countries to ask Trump to help them. If the war widens, all the better for Iran. A major shooting war on Nov. 3 would be just fine with them.
In effect, by keeping gas prices high and the war constantly in the news, Iran can put pressure on Trump. If Iran manages to kill a few more American soldiers in the process, all the better from their point of view. There is almost nothing Trump can do about this—other than surrender and leave the Arab countries to their own devices, which almost certainly means becoming vassals to Iran. That won't work out well for the U.S. at all, but Trump doesn't care about the U.S. He cares about the Senate. If the Democrats get that, they can hold proper trials, with witnesses, evidence, and more for each impeachment.
To keep the war going, Iran keeps attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and keeps exporting its own oil through the waterway, in defiance of the U.S. These actions have triggered the trigger-happy Trump into retaliating. On Saturday, for example, U.S. forces struck three Iranian crude oil tankers. CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper said: "Let the message to the IRGC be clear: If you shoot at two of our ships, we will impose an even higher economic cost—taking out three of yours." Cooper doesn't (appear to) get it. Iran is not interested in the oil flow. It is interested in keeping the U.S. military actively shooting at it because the IRGC knows that Trump promised no more endless wars in the Middle East. By effectively tricking the U.S. into keeping an endless war in the Middle East going on, Iran hurts Trump in the midterms. Actually, Cooper, unlike Trump, probably does understand the geopolitics here. He is a graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy and has a masters from the National Intelligence University in Maryland. He also studied national security policy at Harvard. But the four-star admiral is just executing the orders that come from the civilian leadership above him.
Arab diplomats see no way out. The U.S. is going to cause Iran to suffer economically, and the only thing Iran can do to even the score is prolong the war and make it as painful for Trump as possible.
J.D. Vance seems to be the messenger here. He said:
We really have two options here: We could leave, and the entire world would be way worse off because there would be no guaranteed access to oil and gas—by the way, the Gulf Arab countries are telling us that would be the worst thing in the world. Or we can accept the Iranians are going to shoot at ships like crazy people, and we're going to do what we have to do in order to ensure that their efforts don't lead to a worldwide energy crisis.
Neither of these options are good and by enumerating them, primary opponents are going to hang them around his neck in 2028.
Even people closer to the fire, and with more expertise in the geopolitics of the Middle East, are not optimistic. Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute said: "To say all Gulf economies are now hostages of Iran for the foreseeable future—regardless of the outcome of this war—is no exaggeration." And for the moment, Trump's fate in the midterms is also Iran's hostage. (V)