Dem
51
Ties
3
GOP
46
There are a couple of indicators that give clues to the mood of the country. One is the generic House poll: For which party's candidate will you vote in the House of Representatives election? Another is party identification: Which party do you identify with or lean towards? Here is the graph of party ID over time:
A new Gallup poll gives the Democrats a big lead in party identification, 49% to 39% (including leaners). It also shows the number of people identifying as Republicans at a historical low. Does that presage a huge blue wave? We can definitely say: maybe. The correlation between party ID and winning the midterms is weak. There have been years like 1994, when the Democrats led in party ID but the Republicans flipped 54 seats. On the other hand, in 2018 the Democrats led in party ID and flipped 41 seats. What seems stronger is being the "out" party.
What the data don't measure, however, is enthusiasm, and the Democrats seem to have that this year. So it could be that the combination of being the "out" party, having a big party ID lead, and having more enthusiasm could be a harbinger of a major win in the House. Of course, there are many fewer seats that are competitive now due to all the gerrymandering, so a 30-seat gain in the House would be a massive landslide. (V)