Dem
51
Ties
3
GOP
46
There were regional elections in the German state of Saxony-Anhalt yesterday. The far-right AfD party came in first, far ahead of the #2 finisher, Friedrich Merz' CDU. This small state (pop. 2.1 million), in the former East Germany, is the power base of the AfD.
The AfD wants to ban immigration, has pushed a white nationalist rhetoric, and has repeated Nazi propaganda. It is also against helping Ukraine and sees Russia as a friend, not an enemy. The party also opposes mail-in ballots, constantly attacks the media as biased against it, and claims it has lost in the past due to voter fraud. While it doesn't really have a charismatic leader like Donald Trump, a lot of its program points line up well with Trumpism. The leaders don't talk about Trump explicitly, because he is deeply unpopular in Germany. Still, they use many of his ideas and program points.
The leaders of the mainstream parties have refused to form a coalition with the AfD. However, the AfD got only 39 seats in the state parliament and they need 42 for a majority. They can't govern alone and will need one of the smaller parties with at least 3 seats as a junior partner. There are two parties with 5 seats: the Left and BSW. The Left will never work with them, so it is up to BSW, which is a new left-wing authoritarian party that split off from the Left in 2024. It is economically socialist (wealth redistribution, anti-capitalism, etc.) but culturally conservative (anti-immigrant, anti-transgender, pro-traditional family, no more apologies for being a straight white male). It is also against globalization, anti-Ukraine, pro-Russia, and pro-China. Negotiations will begin today. It won't be easy but the alternative multiparty coalition won't be easy either. Maybe AfD can find a partner, maybe not, but the fact that they came so close has sent a shock all throughout Germany, Europe, and the world.
In France, a presidential election is scheduled for April 18, 2027. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron is term limited and ineligible. There will be at least seven parties competing in the election and perhaps as many as 16 candidates. If no candidate gets 50% + 1, there is a top-two runoff. Virtually all polling has fiery far-right extremist Marine Le Pen way ahead. In the most recent poll, she is at 35% with left-wing Jean-Luc Mélenchon second at 17% and the rest of the votes scattered. She wants to curb immigration and protect French identity. She also has no use for the European Union, although she says she would rather reform it than leave it. Trump has endorsed her, even after her conviction for embezzlement. Actually, he might even admire her grit for trying to get away with it. Of course, this is a national election, not an election in a small state, like in Germany.
Europe has a lot of problems now that require Europe-wide cooperation, including defense, energy security, climate change, and potentially fending off America. Groups and leaders like the AfD and Le Pen, who are narrowly focused on their own countries, with a Trump-like focus on immigration, are only going to make things worse. It is almost as if Europe agrees with Trump's divide-and-conquer strategy and is actively carrying it out. (V)