Dem
51
Ties
3
GOP
46
Yesterday, folks in the Granite State cast their primary ballots. Here are the results, which shook out the way pretty much everyone expected:
U.S. Senate: This was the marquee contest of the night, such as it is. On the Democratic side, Rep. Chris Pappas easily defeated the more progressive Karishma Manzur, 64.3% to 33.4%. They're both in their forties, so this wasn't one of those "old timer vs. young whippersnapper" matchups. And while it was a progressive vs. a more centrist candidate, you can't really draw any conclusions along those lines. Manzur did not campaign much, did not raise much money, and has no political experience, while Pappas did campaign, did raise money, and is well known thanks to his four terms in the House.
There was no doubt at all that Pappas would face off against a former U.S. Senator in the general, and very little doubt that the former U.S. Senator would be John E. Sununu (R). It will indeed be Sununu, who was unseated by retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in 2008, and would like his old job back. Sununu trounced former U.S. Senator Scott Brown (R) 68.3% to 26.6%, which is about what the polls predicted. It would seem New Hampshirites like former New Hampshire senators better than they like former Massachusetts senators.
Sununu will undoubtedly benefit from being part of a New Hampshire dynasty (his father and brother both served as governor of the state), and from having past Senate experience. That said, he's fighting a bit of an uphill battle, given the national political climate. Plus, the Democrats simply must have New Hampshire to have any hope of retaking the Senate, so Pappas is going to be inundated with donations from across the country. Polls say that Pappas begins the general election push up about 2 points. For those readers who find it instructive, there were about 180,000 votes cast by Democrats yesterday, as compared to about 120,000 votes cast by Republicans.
Governor: There was even less drama here than in the Senate contest. Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), who wants to keep her job, took 91.1% of the primary vote. Former Executive Council of New Hampshire member Cinde Warmington (D) was unopposed.
Despite the possible blue wave, Ayotte is likely to keep her job. Incumbency helps a lot, and when the party in power is unpopular, voters tend to punish that party's candidates for federal office, not the ones for state office. Plus, Warmington has spent time as a lobbyist, including on behalf of Big Pharma, and voters really hate lobbyists, particularly those who worked for Big Pharma. Polls say Ayotte starts off with a lead of about 10 points.
NH-01: Both New Hampshire House seats are D+2 and are currently held by a Democrat. This one, however, is open because Pappas decided to run for the Senate. So, it was certainly the most competitive race of the night, on both sides of the aisle. The Democrat is going to be Stefany Shaheen, daughter of the retiring Senator, who took 37.3% of the vote. That barely edged out former Marine Maura C. Sullivan, who claimed 35%. If you want to look for a race yesterday that was bad news for progressives, this is probably it. Shaheen and Sullivan are both pretty moderate, and took nearly three-quarters of the vote between them. Carleigh Beriont and Christian Urrutia are both much more lefty, and combined for about 23%. The fact is that New Hampshire is a purple state, and both Democrats and Republicans there tend to be moderates.
The Republican in this race will be Anthony DiLorenzo, who got 52% of the vote, and easily outpaced MAGA-loving second-place finisher Hollie Noveletsky with her 26.4%. DiLorenzo has pretty wide name recognition in New Hampshire—not because he's served in political office (he hasn't), but because he owns a bunch of car dealerships and collision-repair centers that are advertised heavily on TV. It's like if the Michelin Man or the Pep Boys were running for Congress. We don't know how well that will translate to general election success, but we'll guess that Shaheen will be lifted to victory by the general political climate and by her famous name.
NH-02: This seat, by contrast, is occupied by an incumbent who very much wants to hold onto their job. Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D) easily fought off outspoken lefty Paige Beauchemin (D), taking over 80% of the vote. Again, don't draw too many conclusions here, as Goodlander is well known and raised a bunch of money, and Beauchemin isn't and didn't.
In the general, Goodlander will square off against Lily Tang Williams (R), who took 64.9% of the vote in a 4-way race. Williams is a perennial candidate who is 0-4 in her previous elections. She is also, at heart, a Libertarian who moved from Colorado to New Hampshire because Libertarians have a better chance of winning elections in low-population states. Williams likes to pose for pictures where she is holding very big and scary guns, and she is also a fan of "liberty." There is a statue in New York City she should check out, because we think she'll really like it. She was the losing candidate when Goodlander was first elected to the House in 2024, and we see no reason to think Willams won't run her record to 0-5 in November.
In case you ever wondered if we could squeeze nearly 1,000 words out of a primary election where virtually nothing unusual happened, now you know. Tomorrow, it's Rhode Island. (Z)