Dem
51
Ties
3
GOP
46
If you asked us who we would rather have on our side if we were running for political office: (1) Elon Musk and his money, or (2) a disproportionate share of Latino voters, we would most certainly choose the latter. Money only moves the needle if there's a lot of it, and even then, it doesn't move the needle all that much. On the other hand, Latinos are a true swing demographic. If you have them, particularly in Southwestern states, you're in pretty good shape. If you don't, you are really going to have to hustle.
This year, the GOP has Musk (see above). But they don't appear to have Latinos. At least, they don't appear to have the unusually high percentage of Latinos who voted for the red team in 2024. Are Latino voters only interested in macho, which would seem to be in short supply on the GOP's various 2026 tickets? Are they put off by the fact that Trump did... exactly what he said he'd so, both in terms of the border and in terms of tariffs? Are they being hit hard by the economic turmoil, and voting accordingly, like so many other demographics? Probably some of all of these things.
The latest evidence comes from a poll commissioned by TelevisaUnivision, conducted by Hart Research, and first released to Axios. Hart surveyed 17 competitive House districts, districts where Kamala Harris won the Latino vote by an average of 11 points. Now, when asked if they prefer a Democratic candidate or a Republican candidate (no names were mentioned), Latinos give the nod to the Democrat by 23 points, 58% to 35%. You can describe that as a shift of 12 points in favor of the Democrats, or you can say that the Democrats in these districts are poised to double Harris' lead (and then some) among Latinos.
There is, of course, the problem that Latinos are not a monolithic demographic. Most obviously, Cuban Americans sometimes vote very differently from Mexican Americans. However, the pollster thought of that. Three of the 17 districts that were surveyed are substantially Mexican districts in Texas. In those three districts, Harris and Donald Trump split the vote evenly, 44%-44%. Now, the Democrats are up 20 points, 56%-36%, in those districts. Two of the 17 districts that were surveyed are substantially Cuban districts in Florida. In those two, Trump beat Harris by 1 point in 2024, but now the Democrats lead the Republicans by 13 points, 52% to 39%. Put another way, Mexican Americans appear to be jumping ship more than Cuban Americans are, but both groups have shifted noticeably toward the Democrats.
The pollster also asked what issue the Latino voters care most about. The answer, not surprisingly, was the economy. That said, respondents were also asked whether they approve of Trump himself, and whether they approve of ICE. Those numbers were almost identical; for Trump it was 63% disapprove, 36% approve, while for ICE it was 64% disapprove, 35% approve. That suggests that immigration enforcement looms large in the minds of Latino voters, even if it's not the issue they say they care most about.
Needless to say, if the pollster has the right of it, then the Texas gerrymander, which was based on 2024 voting patterns, could easily become a dummymander. That could happen with the Florida gerrymander, too. If so, then the House will not only be lost to the Republicans, but we could see a number of flips comparable to the blue wave year of 2018 (41 seats that year). (Z)