Dem
52
Ties
2
GOP
46
Donald Trump is apparently convinced he is the magic ingredient that will allow the Republican Party to keep the House and the Senate, and thus to have two more years of the trifecta. Republicans running for office in swing districts (or even swing-adjacent districts) don't agree, and are trying to keep him far away. Given Trump's approval rating, and the number of unpopular policies he has sole ownership of, we think the "stay away" crowd has the right of it.
Truth be told, we can't think of too many places where he'd be an asset. In deep-red states and districts, he's not needed. And everywhere else, he's more likely to drive up Democratic turnout than Republican. Maybe he could help out in Nebraska, where his net approval is -2 (very good, by his current standards), and where Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE) has at least a little bit of a tough campaign on his hands. We could imagine Trump helping in Texas, except that Trump's liabilities (corrupt, law-breaking, adulterous, etc.) serve as a very good reminder of Ken Paxton's liabilities.
The President is so itchy to get out there, the Republicans' best bet is to find states where he's still popular, and to have him spend all his time there. He's +22 in Wyoming, +8 in South Dakota and +15 in North Dakota, so he won't do any harm in any of those places. However, he might also eventually start to wonder why he's spending all his time in the Great Plains states, and might insist on going to some actual battleground states/districts.
Interestingly, Trump's 2024 rival, Kamala Harris, gets it. There are a number of Democrats right now who are running on some version of "I'm not Joe Biden or Kamala Harris, and don't blame me for their weaknesses." Mary Peltola, running for the Senate in Alaska, is one such Democrat. Josh Turek, running for the Senate in Iowa, is another. Those two, and many other Democrats, want Harris to stay far, far, away from them. Like, taking up residence on Mars until November 4 would be fine and dandy. And the former VP has no problem with that, saying: "Bottom line: We need to win. I have run locally. I've run for statewide office, and obviously nationally, and these candidates know what they need to do to win. So, I support them in doing whatever they need to do to win."
We see no reason to think, at this point, that the Republicans won't take a thrashing in November. But the extent of that thrashing could be dictated, in part, by how well the GOP pooh-bahs are able to convince Trump to be reasonable, and to be politically savvy, like Harris is being. We do not envy them their task. (Z)