Sep.18

electoral-vote.com

Dem 51

Ties 3

GOP 46

Today's Senate Polls

Michigan remains close, as both candidates have liabilities that aren't going away.

Harper Polling has been around since 2012, and it does do public policy polling. So, they're not some sort of Johnny- or Jill-come-lately firm. A lead of 15 for Cooper is a bit hard to swallow, but the fact is that the very first poll of this race (way back in July of last year) was tied 44%-44%, and Cooper has been ahead in every single one of the 30+ polls since then. Further, his lead has grown over time, such that he's now averaging something like +8%. With polling like that, and with North Carolina being one of the very most expensive states to advertise in (multiple large, non-overlapping media markets), the GOP would be wise to throw in the towel on this one and spend its money elsewhere.

Emerson tends to be a more Republican-friendly house, Siena leans a little in the Democratic direction. So, that probably explains the difference in their numbers. Nonetheless, they both have James Talarico (D) leading.

We don't see any particular reason to doubt that Mary Peltola (D) could win in Alaska. First, she's won statewide before. Second, Alaska isn't THAT red (R+6). Third, it looks to be a blue year. Fourth, everyone else on the four-person ballot is a Republican. Admittedly, one of them (the other Dan Sullivan) is probably a phony Republican. But still, if any candidate is doing to be hurt by ballot exhaustion (people only choose one candidate, and don't other to rank their other choices), it's the real Dan Sullivan. (Z)