Dem
52
Ties
3
GOP
45
Kansas in play? Really? REALLY? Yeah, maybe.
There have been four major polls of the race, they've all been fairly close (biggest gap, Marshall +5), and this is the first one that is not by a partisan house. As we've pointed out many times, Kansas does have a Democratic governor. Meanwhile, Kansans are being hit hard by the tariffs, not to mention increased fertilizer prices. And Roger Marshall has the charisma of wallpaper paste.
If Adam Hamilton and James Talarico both win, then Democrats across the nation are going to decide that the key to the White House is to nominate a vocal, professing Christian. And they might not be wrong about that. If that is indeed the sentiment, it favors Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY), who is probably the most outwardly religious of the major Democratic presidential contenders.
| State | Democrat | D % | Republican | R % | Start | End | Pollster |
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton | 45% | Roger Marshall | 43% | Sep 15 | Sep 16 | Emerson Coll. |
Let's step back for a second to compare our maps for Sep. 19, 2022 and Sep. 19, 2026:
In particular, compare the Midwest. Is there a hint of how things are going there? What about the South (NC, GA, LA, TX)? Check back on Nov. 4 to get our report. Note that you can easily go back to the current datebin 2022 (last midterm), 2020 (last time this Senate class was up), and 2014 by clicking the links in the legend. You can go to other years by editing the URL. (Z & V)