Dem
52
Ties
4
GOP
44
This cycle, we have written many times that Donald Trump and his mid-to-high-30s approval rating will be an anchor around the necks of Republicans running for reelection. However, we only know how politics works generally. We don't have the fine-grained data that the actual candidates have. Also, since there's never been a president in our lifetimes with the cult-like devotion that Trump inspires, we don't have too much insight into the cost-benefit analysis of trying to connect with the non-cultists at the expense of potentially alienating MAGA Nation.
As this cycle's crunch-time approaches, however, the picture is becoming clearer. To start, the ads being run by Republicans right now are virtually Trump-free. CNN did a survey of Republican TV spots that aired in the first half of September, and of the 500+ the outlet found, only 12 of them mentioned Trump in any way. And many of those 12 either made neutral allusions (e.g., "the difficult times of the Biden and Trump years"), or else were critical.
A particularly remarkable entry comes courtesy of Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-FL), who is running for reelection in the heavily Cuban FL-27, which includes much of Miami, including Little Havana. Late last week, she launched this spot:
It's only 30 seconds, so you might as well watch it. But in case you don't want to, here is a transcript:
Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far. In July, 50% of the 50,000 people that were detained had no criminal record. Be careful what your advisers are telling you about immigration policy. The same Hispanics who help you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today. You can be for immigration what Lincoln was for slavery and Reagan was for communism. I'm not talking about giving them amnesty. I'm talking about giving them a dignified life in this promised land. I am María Elvira Salazar and I approve this message.
We're not quite sure what it means to be the Abraham Lincoln or the Ronald Reagan of immigration policy. Actually, if your notion of a sane immigration policy is "giving them a dignified life in this promised land," then Ronald Reagan would seem to be the Ronald Reagan of immigration policy, since the amnesty enacted during his presidency conveyed legal status upon nearly 3 million people.
In any event, notice that Salazar treads as lightly as she can, and blames the immigration policy not on Trump himself but on his advisers. Apparently, and probably for that reason, Trump is reportedly not that upset about the ad. That said, verbal gymnastics or not, you have a sitting Republican member of the House badmouthing the signature policy initiative of a sitting Republican president. You don't see that every day, especially when the sitting Republican president is the revenge-inclined Donald Trump.
Salazar's district is R+6, which should be pretty safe for a Republican incumbent. That she is willing to challenge the throne, in this way, makes clear that she knows something. Either from town halls, or from talking to constituents, or from polls, or from all of the above, the GOP is either in some hot water with Latinos or with Republican voters in general. And if an R+6 district is in danger, then it follows that an R+6 (or so) state could be in danger. For the record, note that Florida and Ohio are R+5; Alaska, Iowa and Texas are R+6; and Kansas is R+8. All six of those states have produced polls in the last couple of weeks that suggest the Democrats' U.S. Senate candidate is either even, or is in the lead. The evidence continues to mount that the polls could have the right of it.
Over the weekend, incidentally, Politico has a piece that talked not only about Salazar, but about all the other Republicans who are trying to hold Trump at arm's length. Or, really, at something more like 10-foot-pole length. One operative quoted in the article, who was granted anonymity, described the President as "kryptonite." This being the case, it would presumably be best for the GOP if he would just disappear on a 6-week golf trip, only to reemerge on Nov. 4 or so. But instead, he keeps finding ways to insinuate himself into the news, usually for strange or eye-rolly things. Every other president, of at least the last 100 years, knew when it was time for them to shut up and lay low. Not Trump, though. (Z)