Dem
53
Ties
3
GOP
44
We almost let the "TOP 25 ACCOMPLISHMENTS" list pass, because it's kind of like shooting fish in a barrel. But it's a pretty good bridge from the second item to this item.
Yesterday, American Research Group (ARG) released its latest Trump approval poll, and it's a doozy. According to their numbers, only 29% of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing, while 68% disapprove. That, of course, puts him 39 points underwater. And he does even worse on the economy, with 26% approval versus 71% disapproval—45 points onder water.
ARG is not a pollster we would particularly want to bet the farm on. Also not a dollar. Maybe a nickel if we are feeling lucky. They've been at this a while, but they are known for unorthodox approaches to polling, and also for getting election forecasts WAY wrong on occasion. Other pollsters have little to no respect for ARG. That said, an approval poll is less likely to be wonky than an election forecast. And when they are doing approval polls, ARG polls all adults, not just registered or likely voters. So, their numbers might well speak to how the populace as a whole is feeling, even if they don't quite capture how the electorate is feeling.
A more conventional, and reliable, pollster is Reuters/Ipsos (well, Ipsos is the pollster; Reuters is the sponsor). They had grim news for Trump yesterday, too. According to their numbers, 32% of Americans approve of Trump's job performance, while 66% disapprove, putting him 34 points underwater. That 32% is the lowest number Trump has ever gotten from Reuters/Ipsos. It's also within spitting distance of that 29% from ARG.
Now, presumably because of their samples, and maybe because of their weighting, both of these polls are probably a tad on the bearish side. In most polls, he's still pulling an approval between 35% and 41%, for an average of around 37.5% with the aggregators. That's not 32% or 29%, but it's very bad, especially heading into an election.
Of course, what (likely) matters most is how Trump is doing in the states with critical U.S. Senate elections. Civiqs compiles those numbers, and just released their latest results yesterday. Here's how Trump is doing in all the states on our map (above) that have any white in them:
| State | Approve | Disapprove | Net |
| New Hampshire | 28% | 65% | -37% |
| Minnesota | 29% | 63% | -34% |
| Maine | 30% | 63% | -33% |
| Michigan | 35% | 59% | -23% |
| Iowa | 35% | 54% | -19% |
| Texas | 37% | 56% | -19% |
| Florida | 39% | 55% | -16% |
| Ohio | 38% | 54% | -16% |
| Nebraska | 42% | 49% | -6% |
| Louisiana | 43% | 50% | -6% |
| Mississippi | 44% | 49% | -5% |
| Kansas | 48% | 45% | +3% |
Not too much of a surprise that the three states whose Class II senator is a Democrat don't much care for Trump. But these numbers must be giving Susan Collins indigestion. What can she say to voters? "Send me back to Washington and I'll push back against the things you don't like?" They already know she won't do that. John Sununu (R) in New Hampshire also has a very tall hill to climb, but at least he hasn't already been in Washington enabling Trump. (Z)