Dem
53
Ties
2
GOP
45
This is the month where pollsters pay for the kids' Christmas/Hanukkah/Eid al-Fitr/Winter Solstice gifts. The Republicans get a little good news, namely that maybe they don't have to worry about Florida. That said, Sen. Ashley Moody (R) has led in most polls of the state; Angie Nixon's (D) best poll has been a tie (there have been two of those). So, it's not THAT much of a relief. If she loses by double digits in what turns out to be a blue wave where Democrats (almost) win in Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska, the Democrats will tear themselves to bits starting Nov. 4. Moderates will scream: "If you #@!!$#@ progressives had voted for Alex Vindman, the guy who almost took Trump down, we could have won Florida." The response will be: "The people wanted Angie. That's how democracy works. Get used to it."
Also, maybe Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is only mostly dead. She has more lives than all the cats in Maine combined.
On the other hand, evidence is mounting that Kansas could be in play. The trendlines in Michigan are not good for the GOP and the ones in North Carolina are positively dreadful for them. And two different pollsters, both of whom know New Hampshire, think the Senate race there isn't actually close. To see all the polls in graphical form, click on the Senate graphs link in the menu to the left of the map. If there are blue and red stars on the Y-axis and then horizontal lines all the way to today (e.g., Colorado and Illinois), that means there have been no polls of the state and values shown are from the 2020 Senate election results.
We're not sure why a media company would expend the resources to poll Massachusetts or Rhode Island. Maybe because their readers are nervous because there is no polling in their state. (Z)
| State | Democrat | D % | Republican | R % | Start | End | Pollster |
| Florida | Angie Nixon | 40% | Ashley Moody* | 51% | Sep 14 | Sep 21 | CPOR |
| Kansas | Adam Hamilton | 50% | Roger Marshall | 48% | Sep 22 | Sep 24 | Wedgewood Polls |
| Massachusetts | Ed Markey* | 53% | John Deaton | 30% | Sep 17 | Sep 21 | U. of New Hampshire |
| Maine | Troy Jackson | 46% | Susan Collins* | 49% | Sep 15 | Sep 22 | Siena U. |
| Maine | Troy Jackson | 48% | Susan Collins* | 43% | Aug 28 | Sep 14 | U. of Massachusetts |
| Maine | Troy Jackson | 51% | Susan Collins* | 47% | Sep 17 | Sep 21 | U. of New Hampshire |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed | 49% | Mike Rogers | 44% | Sep 15 | Sep 22 | Siena U. |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper | 50% | Michael Whatley | 42% | Sep 06 | Sep 16 | High Point U. |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas | 50% | John Sununu | 42% | Sep 17 | Sep 21 | U. of New Hampshire |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas | 50% | John Sununu | 45% | Sep 15 | Sep 22 | Siena U. |
| Rhode Island | Jack Reed* | 53% | Raymond McKay | 33% | Sep 17 | Sep 21 | U. of New Hampshire |