Dem
53
Ties
2
GOP
45
With early voting already started in many states and Election Day only 5 weeks away, Republican PACs are facing a reckoning. It's triage time. Some Republican candidates will make the cut and others will be cut loose, to sink or swim on their own. Also, desperate times call for desperate measures and these are desperate times (for Republicans).
High (low?) on the triage list are the Senate races in Georgia and North Carolina. Here's why. First Georgia:
Next North Carolina:
Republican groups have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into these races and it has made no difference. After all, how many ways can you call someone a communist? The Democrats have extremely good candidates in both races, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and former governor Roy Cooper, respectively. The Republican candidates have what are politely called "candidate quality" issues. The RNC and NRSC are about to cut both of them loose because Texas, Iowa, Ohio and Alaska are more urgent and less hopeless. If this happens soon, Ossoff, who is an extremely good fundraiser, could end up winning by double digits, maybe even mid-double digits. If he can pull that off, a guy who can win a reddish swing state in the South by that kind of margin would be a formidable presidential candidate in 2028. So if the Republicans cut off Mike Collins in Georgia, they may be creating a very powerful Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 in the process.
Also, as we have noted repeatedly before, after the 2030 census, winning the blue states plus Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania won't get the Democrats to 270 electoral votes. They absolutely need to break through in the South. Georgia and North Carolina have 32 EVs together now and may have more in 2032. This is more than Wisconsin and Pennsylvania combined. If these states turn blue, as Virginia has, the GOP has a BIG problem. The above graphs are for a midterm with excellent Democratic candidates and mediocre Republican candidates, but the handwriting is on the wall. A southern Democrat, like Ossoff or Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY), could be a potent contender.
But there is more to the panicking story. Donald Trump is weighing some options that are bad for the future of the country but might help a little in the midterms. One measure is a 90-day ban on diesel exports. The idea is that fewer diesel exports mean more diesel domestically and thus lower prices. That might work, although energy markets generally don't turn on a dime. The long-term damage to the country is that the countries suddenly cut off from fuel they need are likely to conclude that the U.S. is an unreliable supplier that can cut off essential fuel because it is politically convenient. That is basically a message that they should hedge their bets and start looking for alternative fuel sources that are more reliable. That will hurt U.S. oil companies. They are wildly against this proposal, of course, and had expected their large donations to Trump in 2024 protected them from this kind of stuff. They may then conclude that Republicans don't believe in honest graft. When they are bought, they don't stay bought. In addition, refiners who lose major overseas markets may decide to reduce output accordingly in order to drive prices back up. So, Trump might have to reconsider this 90-day embargo.
Another area where Trump may be forced to backtrack is beef imports. This one is tricky. Consumers (an obviously important constituency) like the cheap imports because they lower food prices. But beef ranchers absolutely hate the imports. If Trump cuts back on importing cheap beef, ranchers may be placated (except for diesel prices) but consumer food prices will continue to rise. There is no good position for Trump here.
Another sign of panic is Trump's campaign schedule. He is going to Oklahoma this week, and then Alabama, Alaska, Florida, Iowa, and Texas in October. Campaigning in deep red states like these means that Trump (or more likely, Susie Wiles) understands these states could realistically go blue in Senate and some fairly red House districts. Whether his presence there helps or hurts the GOP is another question, however. It could motivate Democrats are much as, or more than, Republicans. When J.D. Vance went to Iowa to campaign for Ashley Hinson, she politely announced that she was busy and couldn't campaign together with him. If Vance is too toxic to be seen with, what does that say about Trump? Also, unlike Vance, who knows how to stay on message and call all the Democrats socialists three or four times a minute, Trump tends to make his speeches about himself, not about the candidate he is trying to help. This could remind Democrats why they hate him so much. It is far from certain that these desperate visits will actually be a net plus to the candidate nominally being supported.
What is also happening—albeit quietly—is that Republican candidates are either asking Trump for permission to criticize his administration (but not him personally) or just doing it without asking. Trump is being forced to swallow this, no matter how much it hurts him (although see our posting tomorrow). Topics where candidates are going against Trump include Iran, data centers, ICE and AI. Before this is over, Trump may have to swallow even more stuff he despises. (V)